Jalal Mirzaei, in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, said: “Iran, as a founding member of OPEC and a key power in the GECF (Gas Exporting Countries Forum), holds the world’s second-largest oil and gas reserves and controls the Strait of Hormuz. It plays a vital role in supplying 20% of the world’s exported oil and ensuring its security. Analysts have warned that a halt in Iran’s exports or a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push Brent crude prices to $130 per barrel and exacerbate global inflation. Despite sanctions, Iran has remained a reliable partner in global energy by emphasizing market balance and stable supply. Iran’s natural gas, if obstacles are removed, could also strengthen regional energy security. The idea of removing Iran from the energy market through sanctions or military action is unrealistic. Experience has shown that oil market stability is only possible with Iran’s active presence. Global cooperation, lifting sanctions, and strengthening diplomacy within OPEC and the GECF are essential for energy security. Iran is not a threat but an irreplaceable partner in ensuring the stability of global markets. Establishing peace in the region and cooperating with Iran will benefit all global actors.”

Maintaining Iran’s Position in the Global Energy Market Despite Sanctions

Mirzaei stated: “Despite severe sanctions, particularly after the escalation of pressure during Donald Trump’s second term, Iran has managed to maintain its position in the global energy market.”

According to him, “This success is owed to the efforts of managers and experts in the Ministry of Petroleum, who, despite the lack of foreign investment, have sustained oil and gas production and exports, enabling Iran to export approximately 2.2 million barrels of oil per day while meeting domestic demand. This achievement has been made despite Iran’s inability, unlike some neighboring countries, to carry out extensive upstream oil and gas investments.”

The political science professor noted: “Smart management of existing resources and leveraging domestic expertise have been key to Iran’s continued presence in the global energy market. This approach, along with flexibility in finding new markets, has allowed Iran to resist sanction pressures and maintain its role as a key player in global energy supply. However, sustaining this trend requires more precise policymaking and support for the domestic private sector.”

On energy independence, Mirzaei emphasized: “Nuclear and renewable energy complement each other, and contrary to some propaganda, these two sectors can synergistically contribute to Iran’s energy self-sufficiency.”

He pointed out: “Neighboring countries, such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia, have tripled their production capacity compared to Iran through massive investments in renewables, but Iran faces propaganda and implementation challenges in this field. One major issue is the excessive focus on pre-project propaganda, particularly regarding nuclear energy projects, which often creates obstacles in the development process and increases costs.”

According to this expert, “Nuclear energy, as an advanced technology, not only helps provide sustainable energy but also strengthens Iran’s position as a leading country in science and technology. Meanwhile, developing renewables, such as solar and wind, can reduce dependence on fossil fuels and diversify Iran’s energy portfolio.”

Mirzaei stressed: “Coordination between these two sectors, along with reducing unnecessary propaganda—especially in the nuclear field—can guarantee Iran’s energy independence.”

Potential for Regional Cooperation to Turn Iran into an Energy Hub

From Mirzaei’s perspective, regional cooperation, particularly energy agreements with countries like China and India, holds significant potential to position Iran as a future energy hub. He believes: “With strong political will from the government, coordination by the Supreme Council of the Heads of the Three Branches, and necessary groundwork, Iran can increase its production capacity by attracting upstream oil and gas investments. For example, adding one million barrels per day to oil production and increasing gas output could enhance Iran’s influence in energy markets, particularly in East Asia.”

However, the political science professor pointed to existing obstacles, including financial constraints and sanctions, emphasizing: “By removing these barriers, prioritizing these goals in next year’s budget, and adopting coherent policies—such as signing regional agreements like cooperation with China—Iran can not only attract investment but also open new markets for its energy exports. These collaborations, leveraging Iran’s geopolitical position as a bridge between East and West, can solidify the country’s role as a regional and global energy power.”

Impact of the 12-Day War and Future Threats on Iran’s Energy Market

Further, Mirzaei referred to the developments following the 12-day imposed war against Iran in June 2025 and its impact on regional and global energy dynamics, stating: “Some analyses suggest potential future attacks on Iran’s refineries and oil infrastructure, which could disrupt production and exports. Mirzaei attributes these concerns to the media narrative pushed by domestic and foreign adversaries, aimed at portraying the war as ongoing to drive capital flight and reduce investment in Iran’s energy sector.”

He believes: “This media narrative could plunge Iran’s economy into recession and turn economic growth negative.”

Mirzaei stressed: “We must not fuel these tensions or create domestic unrest. Instead of focusing on these threats in public discourse, the armed forces and security agencies should manage these challenges with full preparedness.”

The political science professor argued: “Maintaining domestic calm and focusing on energy infrastructure development is key to countering these threats. Relying on domestic capabilities and regional cooperation, Iran can mitigate the negative effects of this media narrative and preserve its position in the global energy market.”