Barsam Mohammadi – Regional Affairs Expert

General Mazloum Abdi, commander of the Kurdish Democratic Forces, who played an effective role in the defeat of ISIS in Syria in 2019, recently emphasized in a statement: “ISIS’s activities have increased sharply and the risk of its revival has doubled. They now have more capabilities and opportunities.” These statements come at a time when ISIS has managed to seize some of the weapons and ammunition left behind by the Syrian army in recent weeks after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government.

Some intelligence sources have also reported that a number of ISIS terrorist elements, with the support and coordination of the United States, have entered the desert region of “Wadi Horan” in western Anbar in small groups of 3 to 4 people, equipped with new vehicles, modern weapons, and the flag of American forces from Syria.

It is worth noting that American forces have disabled the GPS service of the airspace of the transfer and deployment route of ISIS elements in the Wadi Horan region in order to prevent any Iraqi aircraft flights or airstrikes.

These events are occurring while in recent weeks, the Iraqi Foreign Minister, in a conversation with the British Deputy Foreign Secretary, has warned about the risk of ISIS escaping from the “Al-Hol camp” and emphasized: “ISIS is reorganizing and, with the acquisition of new weapons, is a serious threat to the security of the region.” Al-Hol is considered the “largest” camp for women, children, and men of ISIS in Syria and Iraq.

Currently, about 11,000 ISIS members are imprisoned in the Kurdish areas of Syria. The families of ISIS prisoners, who number about 50,000, also live in the Al-Hol camp.

The experience of the emergence of terrorist groups shows that ISIS can be revived under the influence of two categories of “internal” and “external” factors: First, the weakness of the central governments in Syria and Iraq in remote areas, sectarian and religious differences, corruption and unemployment, economic problems and public dissatisfaction, which are among the internal factors. Second, the role of external factors, especially countries and actors that use terrorist groups as a “tool” to secure regional and international interests.

Currently, ISIS is unable to regain power and replenish its forces on its own due to numerous reasons, including lack of financial resources, lack of necessary and sufficient facilities and infrastructure, opposition from public opinion, lack of a popular base, etc., unless external factors “facilitate” the process of its revival in Syria and Iraq, which the existing evidence shows.

Therefore, what is noteworthy about the recent developments in the region, including in Syria and Iraq, is the role of foreign factors, especially the US government and the Zionist regime, in the “possible revival of ISIS,” which has posed significant threats to the security and stability of the entire region.

ISIS and other terrorist groups are essentially American and Zionist “tools” for “securing” military, security, political, etc. interests. During the years of its existence and field activity in Iraq and Syria, which occupied a large part of the territory of the two countries and had easy access to the interests of the US and the regime, ISIS did not fire a single shot at the occupied territories and did not seriously target the US economic and military centers in the region.

What exists today in Syria and Iraq as “silent nuclei” or “remnants of ISIS” are, in fact, “American capital” for the day of reckoning, preserved in a “limited” and “controlled” form. The Americans will never allow a tool that they designed and created and that served their national interests to be completely destroyed.

Pursuing and advancing the interests of the United States and the Zionist regime in an atmosphere of terror, insecurity, and chaos is “easier” and “less costly” than advancing it in normal and stable conditions. Takfiri terrorism, which has various forms and titles, is one of the main tools of the United States in the region, which it has used at “appropriate times.”

Although the fall of the Bashar al-Assad government has created a unique opportunity to advance the interests of the United States and the Zionist regime in this country and the region, the multiplicity of actors in Syria, some of whom have interests that conflict with those of the United States, as well as the existence of regional obstacles and sensitivities and public opinion, will present “serious challenges” to exploiting the existing opportunities.

At the same time, the revival of ISIS could facilitate and accelerate the process of the United States and the Zionist regime exploiting the recent developments in Syria. Especially since the international community is currently focused on the war in Gaza, Palestine, and Ukraine, and ISIS is not receiving much attention.

Considering that ISIS’s resurgence poses serious risks to the security and stability of the entire region, putting aside trans-regional political differences and strengthening national governments as well as anti-terrorist movements and elements are important strategies that should be considered by the countries of the region to “neutralize” the policy of ISIS’s revival.

Due to the extensive interventions of the United States and the Zionist regime and their aggressive behavior that led to the collapse of the political system in Syria, the current situation in the region is sensitive and full of security threats. The United States, using the tools at its disposal, including “activating” the remnants of ISIS, is seeking a possible repetition of the Syrian scenario in Iraq differently. The US government’s insistence on disbanding the Popular Mobilization Forces can be evaluated in this context.

The Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq and other popular movements in other Arab and Islamic countries are elements of national authority and security in these countries against the excesses of the United States and the Zionist regime. Therefore, governments should not, under any circumstances, dismantle or restrict the activities of their security-building and authority-building human resources and factors, not only to confront the threats of terrorist and Takfiri elements but also to “guarantee” their national security.