Mehdi Shapouri, in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, referred to the announcement of the results of the US Congressional elections and considered Trump and his supporters as the main losers of the elections in the Senate, Congress, and governors, and stated: Most of those who were supported by Trump and were radical figures, lost in that election. This situation shows that he would probably have a weaker condition in the upcoming elections within the Republican Party as well as in the American society as compared to the previous period.
He added: Although the Democrat Party could not keep the House of Representatives, it lost fewer seats than in previous periods and also kept the Senate. Those conditions were evaluated as a success for Biden, and it seems that if he still will be the representative of the Democrats in the next term, he has a higher probability of victory. Although many developments may happen before the US elections, overall now he is in a good position.
The researcher of the Institute of Strategic Studies, stating that the Republicans will definitely try to influence the decisions of the Biden administration in the House of Representatives in domestic and foreign policy, said: According to the reality of the Republican Party and its policies, they will put pressure on Biden administration in foreign policy, including Iran, in order to take tougher positions. Of course, in cases where the two parties have common positions, especially in relation to China and the war between Ukraine and Russia, the previous policies will continue.
Pointing to the intensification of opposition, from the Republicans in the Congress, to Biden’s social justice plans and the administration’s policies on issues such as abortion and immigration, Shapouri noted: Of course, the Democrats this time were able to gain a better position in the governorships, including in Louisiana where they could defeat the pro-Trump governor, which was a great success for the Democrats. The governors are very important in the United States and this position has a great impact on the domestic politics of the US.
Emphasizing that the election was not entirely in favor of the Republicans and that the success of the Democrats can be seen in it to some extent, he explained about Russia’s desire for the victory of the Republicans in the election with the aim of changing the positions of the United States regarding the war in Ukraine, saying: Russia did not support authentic and traditional Republicans in the election, but its objective was to support Trumpism; because they have a relatively positive view of governance in Russia; at the same time, China and Russia, rightly, believe that the policies of Trumpism and his spectrum in the international arena will weaken the position of the United States.
The international affairs analyst added: But this spectrum lost in the elections. Now, the democratic leftists and opponents of the US alliance with other countries in the Republicans, are in the minority and the policies of the majority of the Democrats and the Republicans, regarding Russia, China, and even Iran, are very similar to each other. Therefore, the possibility of a change in the US approach towards Ukraine is very low, and from this point of view, the election was not in favor of Russia and China.
Saying that during this period, despite Trump’s intention, bipolar conditions did not develop in the US and peaceful elections were held, Shapouri continued: Trump’s political life depends on creating bipolarity and they could not create such conditions as they wanted. Although the House of Representatives will exert pressure on the administration’s policies and great power in the US; the political system of that country is not a parliamentary system and the president has the higher power. In fact, in relation to the issues that need to be approved by both parties, we will be witness to the Republicans bargaining and trying for getting concessions from the government and for making compromise. Therefore, it doesn’t seem that we will see strong differences until the time for presidential elections.
Regarding the impact of the election results on the JCPOA negotiations, he said: The Republicans could not win the Senate, and in the House of Representatives, despite the slogans they raised about the “red wave”, they could not win by a large margin, and such conditions has created a better position for Biden. For this reason, the possibility of negotiation and agreement with Iran still exists for the Biden administration. The creation and victory of the red wave had many consequences for the US, but this has not happened now.
Referring to Netanyahu’s return to power and analyzes regarding the possibility of advancing the Zionist regime’s regional plans in the new era of the United States, the researcher of the Strategic Studies Research Institute noted: A gap has been created between the democrats and the extreme spectrum of the regime headed by Netanyahu. That gap and differences still exist and the democrats do not agree with some policies of the extremists of the regime, including their positions on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and some approaches in occupied Palestine. However, now the JCPOA is tied to other issues such as the drones and the internal protests and disturbances in Iran, and its revival has become more difficult.
According to Shapouri: The JCPOA is the legacy of the Democrats and the current administration played a role in shaping it, therefore they don’t want it to remain as a failed issue in the Democrats’ file and want to revive it. However, recent developments have increased the pressures against the revival of the JCPOA. In addition, we are witnessing the issuance of a resolution in the Council of Governors against Iran, as well as Europe’s tougher stance against the JCPOA, and the claim that Iran has sent drones to Russia has apparently discouraged them.
He considered the sanctions imposed against Iran in recent weeks as a means to weaken the JCPOA and reduce its effectiveness, adding: However; the JCPOA option is an intermediate option for both parties and all parties have interests in its revival. The removal of the JCPOA is not a favorable option for the West and other options will be costly for them. In this situation, the JCPOA can still be effective to some extent. Therefore, the US may try to revive this agreement at this time.
Shapouri continued: The Republicans will definitely put pressure on the Biden administration; but they cannot prevent it; because the JCPOA is a political agreement and does not need to be approved by the Congress. The Senate, in the hands of the Democrats, also prevents the approval of anti-JCPOA plans that may be designed in the House of Representatives.