Amir Hossein Askari, speaking in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, said that the government of Boris Johnson was forced to resign due to two categories of government’s self-made crises and crises caused by external conditions, noting: What caused the crisis and challenge for the Johnson government, was the self-made crises as well as the issue of Northern Ireland that finally forced him to resign.
Regarding the possibility of changes in important British foreign policy files by making changes in the country’s government, he said: The most important issue is whether the Conservative Party will still hold power in the Downing Street or whether the Labor Party can defeat the Conservative Party in the upcoming general elections. If the Conservative Party retains power, it remains to be seen who will succeed Boris Johnson.
Conservative party’s view of foreign policy
The expert on Europe affairs stated that so far various people have announced readiness to lead the Conservative Party and eventually premiership, and explained: One group consists of figures like “Liz Truss”, “Grant Shapps” and people like them who have an attitude and tendency similar to those of Johnson, and if these people are in power, it is unlikely that there will be much change in the files of British foreign relations. As an example, “Liz Truss” shows herself like “Margaret Thatcher” in terms of appearance and behavior, and even before the Ukraine war, she appeared in the Kremlin Palace with an appearance similar to “Margaret Thatcher” on her trip to Moscow to ask Putin to refrain from invading Ukraine.
Askari added: The second group; although are from among the Conservative Party, are against Johnson’s procedures; people like “Rishi Sunak”, “Sajid Javid” are in this category. If a person with colored skin like Rishi Sunak or Sajid Javid or Nadhim Zahawi takes power in the Downing Street, there may be small but not significant changes in British foreign policy files.
Labor Party’s approach to important foreign policy files
Saying that if the helm of Downing Street is transferred to the Labor Party, the only possible option is that “Sir Keir Stammer” will gain power in the Downing Street, and continued: The Labor Party also consists of two factions, the left wing is known for its characteristics such as revisionism in international relations and alliance with the US or opposition to the Zionist regime; people like “Jeremy Corbyn” are in this category. This faction is closely associated with the British Muslim Association, Stop the War Campaign and the Sinn Fein party in Northern Ireland.
Askari said: The right wing of the Labor Party is not much different from the Conservative Party in terms of foreign policy files, and since Stammer belongs to the right wing or at least leans to the right, if he comes to power, we cannot expect him much change directly in foreign policy files; but pressures within the party, such as pressures from the left wing, may force Stammer to pursue some policies under pressure.
The analyst of Europe, British and Ireland affairs, saying that almost the same procedure was followed by the Labor Party and the Conservative Party regarding the nuclear agreement and Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) negotiations, added: The possibility of policy change regarding this issue is very unlikely.
Britain’s future policy towards war in Ukraine
He also pointed to Britain’s efforts to put pressure on Russia and its hostile positions after the Ukraine war and noted: If people close to Johnson can become the leader of the Conservative Party and then the British Prime Minister, although the support for Ukraine may not be as much as that of Johnson’s government, there will not be any significant change in the British approach to Ukraine. If the Labor Party also takes power, it does not seem that there will be much change in the approach of that party towards the Ukraine crisis; because Stammer, as the leader of the party in February 2022, demanded imposition of sanctions and heavy pressures on Russia due to the invasion of Ukraine.
Askari, saying that there is the possibility that intensity of support and the amount of aid that Britain had during the Johnson era towards Ukraine may be reduced to some extent, emphasized: An issue that may pressure any prime minister in Britain to turn or reduce London’s aid to Ukraine is the cost of living crisis that has hit the British citizens hard.
He reminded: As a result of this crisis, in addition to widespread civil and social protests, unions such as the Railway Union, employees of the National Health Department and other departments have gone on a massive strike, and the strike of the Railway Union is known as the biggest strike in the past 30 years in Britain. Therefore, it does not seem that with the change of government, there will be significant changes in London’s foreign policy files, but in certain cases such as the Ukraine war, can reduce British support for this Eastern European country due to the economic crises inside Britain; however, Britain does not seem to deviate from its stubborn approach towards Russia.
The expert on Europe affairs, regarding Britain’s relations with the United States after Johnson’s resignation as prime minister, said: So far, there has been no sign of a desire to reduce the level of relations with the US from both the Labor and Conservative parties. The only exception in this regard is the left wing of the Labor Party under the ideas of Jeremy Corbyn, who is strongly anti-Atlantic and anti-American. Considering that Corbyn currently does not have much power and influence within the party and only works as a member of parliament, it does not seem that his views can have much effect on the main policy of the Labor Party.
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