Speaking in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, Ahmad Haji Sadeghian, referred to Ansarollah’s third attack on Saudi Arabia in the past 15 days, which was carried out by focusing on Aramco oil facility entitled “Breaking the Siege 3” and further clarified: The three recent rounds of attacks that have taken place in recent days are fundamentally different from previous missile strikes, including those targeting urban facilities, desalination plants and electrical installations.

Attack on urban facilities

Saying that the gas oil and jet fuel tanks that were targeted in Jeddah supply about 25 percent of the fuel needed for cars and households consumption in Saudi Arabia, adding: Yemen could, as previously shown, attack targets that would cause a major shock to global energy supply, as if the global price had risen by only about a dollar after the attack. In fact, Ansarollah targeted Saudi public consumption, which showed that its goal was not to overshadow the energy market.

Explaining the process of Ansarollah’s domination over Al-Hudaidah port, which led to Stockholm agreement with the government of Mansour Hadi, according to which control of part of the city and the port of Al-Hudaidah was given to the coalition forces, and in return they guaranteed not to cut off entry of food and fuel into the port, he said: Although there was a lot of sabotage by the Saudis and Saudi Arabia used human pressure as leverage, with the evacuation of the port by the UAE-affiliated forces which led to operations in the provinces of Shabwa, Marib and attacks on Abu Dhabi, we saw that Ansarollah was practically in control of the city and the port of Al-Hudaidah.

Saudi’s attempt to intensify siege of Yemeni people

Haji Sadeghian said: After the evacuation of the port, the forces affiliated with the coalition announced that the Stockholm agreement had been annulled and the siege should be pursued seriously and in fact, Saudi Arabia moved in the same direction about a month ago. The Hadi government, which is practically a puppet of the Saudis, issued a decree that fuel imports to Yemen should be done only from the ports of Aden and Mukalla, which are under their control. This was an important event in many ways; because by overshadowing Ansarollah’s income, it puts a pressure leverage at the disposal of the coalition and intensifies the human pressure on Ansarollah.

He pointed to Ansarollah’s opposition to the plan and continued: Closure of that port means completion of the chain of siege of Ansarollah and intensification of human pressure on the Yemeni people, which could change the conditions of fighting in the war. Ansarollah began negotiations, but the Saudis did not give in, and operation “Breaking the Siege” was launched.

The analyst of Yemen affairs referred to the Saudi blockade of the UN fuel tanker in the port of Al-Hudaidah and their determination for the completion of the siege of Yemen’s population of 22 million, adding: In practice, the situation was as such that Ansarollah decided to show the pressure on the Yemeni people in the field of fuel to the Saudi people, so that perhaps with social pressures, the country would lift the siege of the Yemeni people.

The Director of Yemen Desk at Mersad Center for Strategic Studies, stating that Ansarollah officials acted bravely and intelligently in the face of Saudi human pressure, stressed: It seems that the scope of Ansarollah’s goals has been expanded to include urban facilities; this is an issue that will make the next blows very difficult for Saudi Arabia.

Serious alliance of Saudi Arabia, UAE and Russia in OPEC Plus

Regarding the impact of the attack on energy markets and the increasing pressure on Saudi Arabia to end the war, Haji Sadeghian said: In the past two decades, we have witnessed a rift in the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf and the United States, and China and India have replaced the economies of the US and Europe. Since 2019, distrust of those countries of the United States has intensified by not meeting their expectations. For this reason, we are witnessing a serious alliance in OPEC Plus between Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Russia, and Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have also emphasized their alliance with Russia not to increase energy supply; as the Wall Street Journal reported, the leaders of the two countries, by offering conditions, have given a negative response to Biden’s call for controlling the energy market.

Saying that the alliance between Russia and the Persian Gulf Arab countries showed the depth of their distrust of the United States, he added: The Saudis cannot tie the Yemeni case to the issue of Ukraine, and Ansarollah has practically taken it away from them with the recent operation.

Regarding the prospects of continuing the war in Yemen, the analyst of Yemen affairs said: It seems that Saudi Arabia is not seriously ready to accept Ansarollah as the representative of a large part of the Yemeni people and come to terms with the realities of that country. On the other hand, Ansarollah does not intend to deprive the Yemeni people of their rights. Under the present situation, although the variables of the Yemen war are very high and fast, there is still no prospect of an end to the war.

Regarding the impact of global considerations on an end to the war in Yemen and the increasing pressure on Saudi Arabia, Haji Sadeghian said: As we saw during the attack on Aramco, Saudi Arabia seriously tried to show its ability to control the oil market. Especially in certain situations when it comes to oil market share, the country enters seriously so that its share of the oil market and supply to the world market is not lost. But on the other hand, under the current situation, Ansarollah does not intend to start a war with the West over energy; because now the price of oil has risen for economies of the West.

He stressed: Ansarollah will not go into the direction that gives an excuse to the Saudis to increase oil prices, because it knows that in that case the West will turn to direction of supporting the Saudis and ensuring the security of that country more and the equations will be to the detriment of Ansarollah.