Dr. Seyed Abbas Araghchi, Secretary of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, summarized the analysis of the reasons for the outbreak of war in two general categories and said: One group of analysis indicate that Russia, noticing the weakness and fragmentation of the United States and Europe, has taken the opportunity to establish its desired security order in its peripheral environment. The other category is the analysis that sees the war as a trap from the West for the economic siege of Russia and involvement of that country in a war of attrition. According to the first analysis, we will see a stronger Russia at the end of the crisis, and according to the second analysis, we will see a weaker Russia.

He added: What to be shown by the future events is that which of the two contrasting analyses is completely correct, but one thing is certain, and that is the fact that the international security system has collapsed as a result of this attack and a new geostrategic and geopolitical atmosphere in the international arena will be shaped. A new Cold War is emerging with completely different dimensions and characteristics.

Need to understand reasons for Ukraine war in order to properly analyze the situation ahead

Hassan Beheshtipour, an expert on Russia affairs, stressed the need for understanding the roots of the current Ukraine crisis, and while pointing to Ukraine’s geopolitical position for Europe and Russia, said: Part of the current crisis in Ukraine is the result of Western movements in 2004 and presidency of Viktor Yushchenko, in order to break the cohesion between Russia and Ukraine and somehow create a rift between Russia and Ukraine.

He said: It should be noted that since then, there has been a serious split inside Ukraine, as such that the western part of it tends to Europe and the eastern and industrial part is strongly in favor of Russia. The Americans and the British made good use of this split and fueled it, as if in case such conflict did not exist, they could not have shaped today’s developments. But in 2010, with Viktor Yanukovych coming to work again in Ukraine, the Russians were able to strengthen their front in the country and weaken the West’s position in Ukraine.

Beheshtipour cited economy as another important factor in shaping the Ukraine crisis and stressed: Ukraine is at the center of Russia’s gas exports to Europe, and the United States is seeking to reduce such dependence. With Joe Biden coming to power in the United States and his rapprochement with the British, the situation was greatly exacerbated.

He believes that Yanukovych’s great mistake in 2013 was that he opposed Ukraine’s membership in the European Union and stressed its full membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), adding: Not signing the agreement, which could have greatly contributed to Ukraine’s weak economy, created protests inside the country that eventually led to the ouster of Yanukovych.

The expert on Russia affairs noted: Following the developments after the ouster of Yanukovych, the Russians occupied the Crimean Peninsula to upset the equation. Contrary to the Western perception, Russia, unlike in 2004, reacted very strongly to the developments in Ukraine and the situation became more complicated. The Americans also imposed sanctions on Russia which, of course, had little effect. Therefore, geopolitical factors and the economy have had a great impact on the formation of the current crisis in Ukraine.

Beheshtipour, referring to the presidency of Petro Poroshenko, which was a period of Ukraine’s close proximity to the West, said: He complicated the situation by raising the issue of Ukraine’s membership in NATO, because in case of Ukraine’s membership in NATO, all security equations in western Russia would be upset.

He said: Ukraine is much more important to Russia in terms of size and geography than Turkey or Latvia, which had previously joined NATO, and it could upset all of Russia’s security equations. Therefore, Russia will not fall short in this matter. Moscow, of course, tried to issue the necessary warnings through measures such as recognizing the independence of the Luhansk and Donetsk republics, but tensions persisted and eventually led to the recent war.

Referring to the period when Russia deployed its forces on the border with Ukraine, the expert on Russia affairs stressed: All the evidence showed that the United States and Britain, with all their psychological and media work, tried to push Russia into the war with Ukraine.

Raising the question whether Russia is really looking for a new international order, he stated: In response to this question, we have to say yes, because with this action in Ukraine, both Europe’s energy security has been endangered due to its dependence on importing 40% of its gas needs from Russia, and also a large part of Western food security which is dependent on the Russians has been brought under question. Therefore, the evidence suggests that the Russians are seeking to establish a new order.

Stereotyped proposition; Ukraine, Russian swamp

In the continuation of the debate, another expert on Russia affairs, Mahmoud Shouri, said: There is a serious and stereotyped argument among many analysts, especially Westerners, that the West has practically pushed the Russians in a direction to make Ukraine a swamp for Russia.

He stated: Although the outlook for Russia in the future is not good, the Russians did not enter the fray empty-handed, and probably had already calculated the sanctions; however, they did not expect the sanctions to be so severe that they would even lead to sanctions against Russian sports teams.

Shouri continued: In general, the developments in Ukraine should be seen in the form of a chessboard in which, following the risky move of an actor, the opposing player tries to change the pieces to win the game and drive Russia into the ground.

The expert on Russia affairs added: Russia did not want to be so involved in the war. At the same time, the Western media is using this situation to create an anti-Russian atmosphere on the Ukrainian and international stage.

Saying that there are two scenarios for continuation of war in Ukraine, he noted: According to these two scenarios, either Russia does not have the required fighting power to occupy Ukraine, or it does not want that and does not intend to have the seal of occupation engraved on its forehead. It was estimated that Volodymyr Zelensky would enter the negotiations after Russian forces approached Kiev, but this estimate was also wrong and it is unlikely that he will surrender as Western provocations continue.

Shouri continued: But the important question is, how do the Westerners ultimately want to deal with energy and sanctions? Because both Europe and Russia need each other. Europe’s dependence on Russian energy is not something that can be solved in a day or two. Sanctions have the same effect on Russians as they do on Europeans.

Saying that although sanctions will affect Russia’s economic situation, he added: The Russian government will certainly manage the economic situation caused by the sanctions in the medium term.

The expert on Russia affairs continued by emphasizing that Moscow did not enter into the Ukrainian war without calculation and stressed: It should be borne in mind that Russia, from 2008 onwards, won all its military operations outside the borders of that country, including Georgia, Crimea or Syria.

He said in his analysis: Today, the world is facing a new Cold War. Although this war has no ideological dimension, Russia has to organize itself in two dimensions; first, in the economic sphere in which the West no longer has a role, it seeks to create a new economic bloc so that it can pass through the space of interactions away from the ideological color and odor of the sanctions; and second, it is trying to organize its military capabilities to create an anti-Western military bloc.

Paying attention to the facts to reach the correct analysis

In another part of the session, Kourosh Ahmadi, an expert on international affairs, said the current situation in Ukraine required careful and serious attention to the existing facts and specified: The analysis must clearly clarify the attitude of Ukrainian public opinion to the internal developments in their country, and at the same time, it should be noted that what did the Russian president intend to pursue in the Ukraine war?

Saying that Vladimir Putin, in a speech a week before the war, spoke of the falsity of Ukraine, he added: With such words, Putin largely limited himself to further actions and paved the way for international action against Moscow. As Russia today puts forward four conditions, including de-Nazism in Ukraine, for an end to the war, which means a change of government in Ukraine; this, too, can create limitations for his goals, as now he is forced not to back down from what he has said.

Meanwhile, he blamed the war on the Kremlin’s miscalculation of Ukraine’s domestic public opinion and the West’s dependence on Russian energy, and the West’s failure to tie it to national security calculations and said: Russia’s expectations of Chinese support for it during the sanctions period is not clear whether to happen or not and that to what extent the Chinese are willing to pay for cooperation with Russia during the sanctions period.

Emphasizing that the geopolitical calculations formed after the Cold War were suddenly destroyed after the Ukraine war, Ahmadi said: This event can be considered as the most important geopolitical development after the Cold War. For example, Germany has set aside 120 billion dollars to strengthen its military, or Finland and Sweden are considering to join NATO. Strengthening NATO’s eastern front can also be very effective. If this situation continues, it will be to the detriment of the Russians. At the same time, the Russian economy does not allow it to enter into an arms race with the United States.

He stressed: If Russia fails to quickly rectify this situation, many straps will be tied to its hands and feet and its allies will also lose.