Roots of the Crisis in Tunisia

2021/08/16 | Note, political, top news

Strategic Council Online - Since the fall of Ben Ali in Tunisia in 2011, the country has faced many surprises. The only country that was able to successfully overcome the Arab Spring and draft a constitution based on democracy was Tunisia. In Tunisia there is a semi-presidential system, a parliamentary government, and at the same time a president with very broad powers elected by the people; but the removal of the Tunisian prime minister by President Kais Saied, the dissolution of the parliament for a month, and the lifting of the immunity of deputies is the beginning of a new round of events in the country. Mahmoud Fazeli - International affairs analyst

The president, who has all the executive power to “save Tunisia, the government and the people of Tunisia,” claims that this is neither a suspension of the constitution nor a departure from the legitimacy of the constitution, it is within the law. People also took to the streets to celebrate the Tunisian president’s decision to suspend parliament and remove the prime minister on July 25, 2021.

Through his measures, the president has shown that he listens to the outcry of the people and wants to be a changer. He considers those measures in accordance with Article 80 of the Constitution. According to this article, in case of a serious threat to the stability and integrity of the government, the president is allowed to make some decisions; but the article does not explicitly say whether the president “can oust the prime minister and dissolve the parliament?” The Tunisian president, who is one of the architects of the 2014 constitution and a professor of the constitution, has interpreted Article 80 of the constitution in this way. This article refers to the need for the president to consult with the prime minister and the speaker of parliament when making such decisions.

The Tunisian constitution states that in the event of any dispute between the pillars of the government, a constitutional body will be set up to resolve it; but 10 years later, an institution similar to the Constitutional Court has not yet been established in Tunisia, and the dispute over the identity of its founder continues. According to Article 80 of the Tunisian Constitution, 30 members of the parliament can go to the Constitutional Court after 30 days. The court shall rule on the formation or non-existence of the conditions under which the President ousted the speaker and the prime minister. In recent days, the country has witnessed a widespread wave of dismissals of officials in government institutions and judicial positions.

The dimensions and roots of the political crisis in Tunisia are still unclear, with some calling it a blatant coup against the constitution and democracy, and others calling it necessary to get Tunisia back on track. Another group believes that Tunisia would not have witnessed the current developments without the intervention of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, France, and their efforts to eliminate the Muslim Brotherhood, including the Islamist Ennahda Party led by Rached Ghannouchi. The regimes of Saudi Arabia and the UAE are embarking on the wave of the Tunisian crisis and their efforts to oust their stubborn enemy; the Muslim Brotherhood from power.

The Tunisian president’s views on the Palestinian issue, normalization (of relations), the axis of resistance and other issues in the Arab region differ from those of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Saied’s position towards the Zionist regime is quite clear. He is a staunch opponent of the “deal of the century”. He believes that the Israeli regime is an occupier and must end its actions and the displacement of the Palestinians. He considers normalization to be the greatest betrayal and believes that any party that has a relationship with the usurper regime is a traitor. In his view, Palestine is not a land to be traded.

Another group believes that the current developments in Tunisia are completely internal and without foreign intervention, and that the measures taken by the Tunisian president target those who are involved in the country’s stalemate and the failure of Tunisia in dealing with the Coronavirus crisis, including the Ennahda party. Rached al-Ghannouchi, the speaker of parliament and leader of the party that forms the majority in the parliament, called Saeid’s decision a “coup against the constitution.” One of the points that led to the coup in Tunisia was the attacks on the offices of the Ennahda movement. Those who supported Saeed’s decisions targeted Ennahda offices. The Ennahda movement, as the Brotherhood’s representative in Tunisia and its leader, is very close to Turkey. Although they held a majority in the parliament, they did not govern Tunisia. Evidence shows that the Muslim Brotherhood has been targeted in Tunisia after Egypt, Syria and Libya. Some sources claim that the UAE and Saudi Arabia are behind the coup. Rached al-Ghannouchi has also officially stated that the UAE media is behind the coup attempt in Tunisia and the targeting of Ennahda Party buildings.

Turkey is closely following the events in Tunisia. One of the foundations of the Turkish diplomacy in Libya is Tunisia and Algeria. Developments in Tunisia will now more or less affect Turkey’s position in Libya. According to Turkey, the coup in Tunisia was reminiscent of the July 3, 2013 coup in Egypt. In Tunisia and Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood is the main target. The coup in Tunisia, like the coup in Egypt, could damage Turkey’s policies in the Eastern Mediterranean. Turkey received its first support from Tunisia in the Eastern Mediterranean struggle that began in Libya. In Libya, the Tunisian president was able to free himself from French influence between the Turkish-backed legitimate government and the coup maker Khalifa Haftar. Although Tunisia did not confront Haftar directly, at least not turning its back on the legitimate Libyan government was an important step from Turkey’s point of view. If Turkey loses its position in Tunisia, it will lose another region in the Eastern Mediterranean besides Egypt and Lebanon.

Over the past six months, there have been disputes between the Ennahda Party whose members constitute the majority of the parliament, and the Tunisian presidency, which is crippling the government. The political stalemate added to the economic and social crisis has left people helpless. The Tunisian dinar has never experienced such a difficult situation in 15 years. The cost of living has risen sharply and unemployment among young people has risen. After Covid-19, the unemployment rate has risen to 41% among people aged 15-24, which has exacerbated frustration among young people and different segments.

The health crisis in Tunisia is also progressing and has destroyed the country’s poor health care system. Tunisia, which had a very small number of people suffering from Covid-19 in 2020, now has the highest mortality rate in Africa and the Arab world, according to the World Health Organization. The wave is killing 150 to 200 people a day.

There is considerable disagreement that serious economic problems, parliamentary movements and the outbreak of the Coronavirus have fueled the situation, and the inability of parliament to deliver on the promises of the January 2011 revolution will remain strong. Despite the current events in Tunisia, we have to wait a bit and see the next steps of the Tunisian president to determine the reality of the events, whether this crisis is due to internal political tensions or the result of foreign intervention or the result of both factors. Many people insist on having an authoritarian person who promises them a better life and has more power.

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