Signs of Saudi closeness to Syria

Saudi Arabia has had behind-the-scenes political and security contacts with Syria for years, but the first sign of a change in Riyadh’s approach to Syria over the past 10 years should be seen in the visit of General Khalid Al Humaidan, a Saudi intelligence officer close to Mohammed bin Salman, to Syria last month. During that non-public visit, he reportedly met with some senior Syrian officials, including Bashar Assad, Ali Mamluk, Vice-President for Security Affairs, and Faisal Mekdad, the Syrian Foreign Minister. The resumption of diplomatic relations, the reopening of the Saudi embassy in Damascus and the return of Syria to the Arab League were the “three important axes” discussed during that trip.

In recent days, Al-Jazeera television has reported the “imminent normalization” of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Syria. A senior Syrian opposition figure close to the Saudi Foreign Ministry told Al Jazeera that Al Saud’s political thinking had changed and that many senior members of the royal family, including Mohammed bin Salman, were seeking a relationship with Bashar Assad. The Syrian figure, who has reconciled with the Syrian government, described the new attitude among senior Saudi officials as they have concluded that “time has changed, the Arab Spring has gone down in history and the region with new geopolitical features is moving towards a new future.”

Reasons and necessities

Regarding the motivation and necessity of Saudi Arabia’s interaction with Syria, there are various political and field reasons, the important cases of which are as follows:

One; The defeat of Trump and the beginning of Biden’s presidency have been the source of many changes in the behavior and policies of Riyadh in the region in recent months. From the positions of the Saudi court towards Yemen to opening the door to interaction with Iran and Turkey, etc., are affected by this issue. Interaction with Syria is no exception to this rule. Unlike Trump, Biden does not have a favorable view of Saudi policy, and this position has been communicated to Saudi Arabia. The removal of Netanyahu from power, who had good relations with bin Salman, will further balance Saudi Arabia’s policies in the coming months.

Two; Field and political developments in the countries and regions in which Saudi Arabia is involved or related (especially Syria, Yemen, Lebanon and Qatar) have led to the failure of Saudi policies, putting Saudi Arabia in a “geopolitical dilemma”. Saudi Arabia’s entry into the Syrian crisis in 2011 was aimed at deepening Riyadh’s strategic influence in the region. This was pursued by overthrowing the Syrian political system and cutting off the communication channels of the Resistance Front in that country. To this end, Riyadh provided more than 80 billion dollars in financial assistance to terrorists in Syria; but what happened to the Saudis was nothing but “defeat”. At the same time, the decisive victory of Bashar Assad in the recent presidential election also shattered some of the remaining hopes of Bin Salman. It is worth noting that in the past few months, Saudi Arabia has made great efforts to defeat Bashar Assad in the Syrian elections, using the media and propaganda warfare and political channels. Almost everything is stabilized in Syria and Riyadh has no chance to change the political, security and field situation in that country. In that sense, extending a hand of friendship to Assad is the product of the various failures that bin Salman has had with aggressive and extremist actions in the face of regional rivals.

Three; Participation in the “reconstruction of Syria” is another issue that justifies Saudi Arabia’s conciliatory approach to Syria. Especially since many countries, even in the Arab world, have announced their readiness to participate in the reconstruction and revitalization of the Syrian economy and infrastructure. Saudi Arabia, which considers itself the senior of the Arab world, does not want to lag behind others in this matter. Saudi Arabia has no choice but to join the positive trend that has begun between the Arab countries towards Syria. The UAE, Saudi Arabia’s largest ally in the region and once one of the main attacking forces against Bashar Assad, has been reopening its embassy in Syria for months, engaging in political, economic and other cooperation with the Damascus government; if Riyadh does not want or cannot adapt to the process that is gradually re-accepting Syria in the Arab world, it will be further isolated.

Four; Saudi Arabia has a hostile attitude towards the Muslim Brotherhood. The Brotherhood is a serious ideological rival for Saudi Arabia in the region and the Islamic world. That is why confronting the Muslim Brotherhood, even in rival and hostile countries, is one of the most important foreign policy agendas in Riyadh. Saudi Arabia knows that Brotherhood extremists are the strongest and most important opposition movement in Damascus among the Syrian government’s armed opposition, which, with the support of the Turkish government, controls much of Idlib Province. Therefore, confronting the presence and influence of the Brotherhood in Syria is one of the reasons that justifies Riyadh’s conciliatory approach to Syria.

Perspective

Saudi Arabia is trying to resolve some of its tensions with Iran through engagement with Syria. In this regard, the Saudi delegation that visited Syria in May has sent a message to Iran that in the Syrian civil war, “the side on which Iran has invested the most has won and Saudi Arabia does not intend to challenge this fact.” However, it should not be overlooked that Saudi Arabia, in line with a “traditional policy” that sees Syria as an invisible part of the Arab world, has improved relations with Syria in line with its long-standing effort to pull Syria out of the strategic orbit of the Islamic Republic. It does, however, view Syria as a golden bridge to engage with Iran. According to reports, bin Salman, through a delegation sent to Syria, told Bashar Assad that he was no longer seeking a replacement for the Syrian president, but that the Syrian government should move away from Iran and become closer to Saudi Arabia.

Given that the Islamic Republic is one of Syria’s strategic partners in the region, such a request by Riyadh cannot be accepted by the Damascus government, thus obscuring the success of any talks and negotiations on the resumption of bilateral relations. Because a similar request was made of Syria in 2017. In that year, Saudi Crown Prince bin Salman asked Bashar Assad to stay in power forever if he severed ties with Iran and Hezbollah, and Saudi Arabia pledged to pay the full cost of rebuilding Syria, but Bashar Assad refused.

Syria is one of the important actors of the Islamic Resistance Front. It has also paid a lot of money for its survival in that front. Saudi Arabia’s conciliatory stance on Syria could not be very successful without changing its policies toward other interwoven components of the Islamic Resistance Front, including Yemen, Palestine, Lebanon, and Iran.