Isolation of Trump’s Maritime Coalition & Allies Wall of Mistrust

2019/09/02 | interview, political, top news

Strategic Council Online: An international affairs analyst said Americans were expecting much more from other countries and allies, in particular, to join the maritime coalition. He added: “From their point of view this was a right expectation and as their main allies they were spending a lot of money on security and maintaining their bases in those countries, hoping they could use them one day, but that expectation has not come true because there is a lack of confidence in the Americans in these countries.

Speaking to the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, Mahmoud Fazeli noted that in recent weeks the United States has sought to form an international coalition under the pretext of monitoring and protecting merchant ships in the region. The United States has sent the request to sixty countries but none of them, many of which major US allies in various parts of the world, whether in Europe or East Asia, accepted to join the coalition. Britain, Australia and the Zionist regime of Israel were three exceptions plus Bahrain which has just announced its readiness to join the coalition.

He added: “Even some smaller European countries, such as Denmark, which had initially stated they were willing to take part in the coalition, had second thoughts. The reactions of the political parties to this issue depicted a difficult road ahead for the future of this action by the Social Democratic government. Left parties in Europe are generally opposed to US expansionist policies in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East, and no positive ground has been seen from the majority of the Danish parliament.

“The most important countries that have ignored the US request so far are Japan, Norway, Spain, Germany, France and even Greece lately,” the former diplomat said. “This difference of opinion is due to the important role of the Strait of Hormuz in this region.

He said that some of the countries that are important US partners in political and international affairs have distanced from US policy, explaining: “Greece, which has been a key US ally in the last four decades and a NATO member and a member of the European Union opposed the US request, saying it would not dispatch even a small frigate or reconnaissance ship to the region.”

A new government has taken over in Greece that seeks to formulate its relations with Iran. The group had not been in power for a long time, and it seems the new leaders in Greece are reluctant to join the coalition despite the presence of US bases in the region.

At the same time, Fazeli said: “It may be said that they have enough problems with Turkey in the Aegean and the Mediterranean seas and are unable to join the coalition. Of course, this is an important point, but this country was an oil customer of Iran before the oil sanctions and may have hopes in the future. However, they have officially stated that they do not intend to join such a coalition.”

Britain, as one of the main US allies, has said it was ready to participate in the maritime security mission, he said, adding: “The new government has taken a positive stance toward the Americans. It was an important decision made by Mr Johnson as the new prime minister and he wants to show his coordination with the US.”

He also pointed to Japan’s negative stance on joining Trump’s international maritime coalition in the Persian Gulf, saying that a lot of oil is coming into Japan from the region and the Japanese do not want to lose the balance that is currently in place. For this reason, despite their good strategic relationship with the Americans, Tokyo has said they would consider the issue but did not respond positively. This indicates that they have serious doubts about this decision. Japanese officials said they were reluctant to join the coalition, but were seeking a more constructive role. So the Japanese like to take the initiative. Iranian and Japanese officials have travelled to each other’s countries and are keen to maintain the security needed for oil tankers’ traffic in the region and to see tensions in the region decrease.

Fazeli then pointed to Germany’s negative stance on the US plan to build an international maritime coalition in the Persian Gulf, saying that Berlin’s position was clear from the beginning. Perhaps, he said, Germany was one of the first countries to reject the US request. “Germany has a small navy. Many of these European countries do not have a large navy and therefore cannot provide the United States with facilities. They like to make this decision at the European councils of foreign and defence ministers of the EU. Recently Mrs Merkel announced that talks would be held at the next EU summit in Finland, but so far the German position on this issue has been negative.”

The former diplomat said that the Americans were certainly expecting much more from other countries and allies, both in Europe and in East Asia, adding:

“From their point of view this was a right expectation and as their main allies they were spending a lot of money on security and maintaining their bases in those countries, hoping they could use them one day, but that expectation has not come true.”

According to Fazeli, despite the Americans’ wishes, their allies have reservations about entering political-military coalitions, because the presence of countries in these coalitions reflects their particular view and may affect Iran’s relations with those countries.

“There is a kind of mistrust in Americans inside these countries, and political parties in some of these states are a serious obstacle in the way of their governments,” he said. On the other hand, these countries have had good relations with Iran in recent years and at least had no negative relationship. They want to keep the status quo. They do not want this to affect their oil passage through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the energy supply is very important for these countries.”

“Another thing we may be less aware of is the public opinion of these countries. Public opinion in Europe and some other countries play a very important role in pressuring the ruling governments; they certainly do not want their own public opinion to suffer and want to stay in power. On the other hand, there are independent parties in these countries that can sometimes play as leverage on the positions of the ruling government. The parties in these countries, as shadow governments, have sometimes been able to exert maximum pressure on their country’s officials to exercise their independent views on US foreign policy.”

He said that the current situation in Iran differs from its previous status following the signing of the Iran Nuclear Agreement (also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action). He added: “The public opinion and especially the media in many European countries view the US departure from the JCPOA as a negative move. They believe the US exit from the Iran Nuclear Agreement had sparked expansionist policies by Trump. Whether in Iran or the Middle East or Syria and some of the developments taking place in Europe, Trump has taken sudden and controversial positions, such as asking to buy one island (Greenland) from Denmark. He told the Danes to sell the island as they may not need it! They see to what extent Trump adopts a policy of instability on some international developments. This is how they feel deep inside and some media outlets reflect this feeling, believing that it is the new positions that will bring new tension and conflict to the region and ultimately it will not be in the interest of any of these countries in terms of security.”

Fazeli said these countries can certainly not link the future of their relationship to Trump’s demands, as they may always face other recourse from him to join another coalition and new planning that they have no role to play and reap no direct interest from it.

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