Although the 27 remaining EU countries finally adopted the Political Declaration on the British withdrawal from the European Union at their Brussels meeting, the UK’s final withdrawal from the European Union still requires the consent of the House of Representatives. While the adoption of this Declaration is the first step in the withdrawal of Britain from the EU but given the differences within the Conservative Party and the Labor Party, the Brexit continues to face significant challenges despite the adoption of this draft.

Before endorsement of the Declaration by the British Cabinet, several conservative members of the Theresa May government resigned in protest. In fact, they argued that what the Britons had voted in 2016 does not comply with the actions of May.

On the other hand, the Labor Party has adopted a strong stance on the EU declaration with Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn announcing it will explicitly oppose the draft withdrawal from the European Union.

Given that at least 320 members of the House of Commons must vote in favor of the draft, this has somewhat overshadowed the prospect of ratification. The Conservative Party has 313 seats in the House of 650 seats. The Conservative Party has managed to form a government with the coalition and support of the Unionist Party of Northern Ireland which has 10 seats in the parliament. So if some Conservative Party members vote against the draft it will certainly not be approved. This could create complicated circumstances in the process of British withdrawal from the European Union.

But if the draft is approved, the process of Brexit will be implemented in March 2019 and after approval by the European Parliament, it should also be approved by the parliaments of the other 27 members.

In the meantime, if the Brexit draft is not approved for any reason, several scenarios would be possible.

The first scenario would be an uncontested exit, which would be costly for both the UK and the EU. Therefore it is unlikely that any of the parties would go after this scenario.

The second scenario could be a re-run of a referendum, which, given the positions of the Labor Party and the Conservative Party, it is an unlikely event.

The third scenario is the holding of early elections, in which case the Labor Party has a higher chance of victory given that the Conservative Party is in a shaky position in the eyes of the British public opinion. This could lead to the victory of Jeremy Corbyn Party. In the meantime, this would cause the opponents of the Brexit draft to handle the issue with more caution and conservatism. Therefore, the likelihood of voting for the Brexit draft is high because the Tories do not want their rival the Labor Party to win the majority.

Considering the problems mentioned, it seems that the process of British withdrawal from the European Union is certain, and now this would happen is the focus of consultation and analysis of experts on European and British affairs.

UK’s Post-Brexit Status

British withdrawal from the European Union will undermine the position of the EU, as Britain is one of the countries with a large military and economic power in Europe. A British exit from the EU would be to the latter’s disadvantage.

Let’s not forget that Britain is the sixth economic power in the world and its exit from EU has already caused trouble for the EU.

On the other hand, given that Britain has always been an incompatible member of the European Union over the past four decades and has challenged Europe’s convergence process, Germany and France will probably become stronger in the European Union. Of course, the concern of the countries of Eastern Europe about the strengthening of Germany and France will also increase. From this perspective, the exit of Britain from the EU may deepen the gap within the European Union.

Iran and Brexit

As for the post-Brexit foreign policy prospect of Britain and the European Union towards Iran, it should be noted that British foreign policy in the Middle East has been pivotal both before and after its presence in the EU; London has always tried to pursue its long-term interests and policies in the region; Therefore, Britain outside the European Union too will try to play a more significant role in spheres of its influence so that it can play a greater role in economic and political and military terms in the Middle East, which has long been the domain of London’s influence.

Also, given the gaps created in Washington-London ties, the role of Britain in strengthening ties with Iran could increase. It is particularly true because Britain has been fully supportive of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), has refused to follow the United States and pursued a pro-JCPOA policy alongside Germany and France. Therefore, even after exiting from EU, London is expected to maintain that role in its relations with Iran and refrain from tension creation with Iran. In the meantime, the European Union will also try that the British exit from EU would not harm its line of policies in the region and especially its relations with Iran. Accordingly, the European Union member states are expected to follow the same trend in safeguarding the JCPOA and forging EU mechanisms to solve the existing problems.