In an interview with the Strategic Council Website on Foreign Relations, Pir Mohammad Molazehi, an analyst on subcontinental issues, discussed Afghanistan’s parliamentary and local council elections scheduled for October and speculated that ISIL and Taliban will try to attack the polling stations on the election day with the goal of disrupting the hold of unrigged elections.

The following is the full text of this interview:

Question: Why are the upcoming parliamentary and local council elections in Afghanistan important?

The elections were scheduled to take place almost a year ago, but were postponed due to unfavourable conditions; however, the current situation is such that the election time cannot be delayed any further. The importance of the forthcoming elections, first of all, is that the current parliamentary term has expired months ago. Secondly, the present condition in Afghanistan is such that it needs a powerful parliament to come to power to deal with the country’s problems.

On the other hand, local council elections are also highly significant because it is the second time that such elections are held and a number of provincial council representatives will find their way to the Senate. These elections will start from local neighbourhoods in the first stage, then in the villages, districts, cities and finally in provinces; in the end, the provincial council should nominate one representative to take a seat in the Senate.

Q: What are the remarkable issues that deserve attention in the forthcoming Afghan election?

Presently, a very serious controversy is going on between the political parties and the election commission. The commission has removed the names of several Jihadists from the list of candidates alleging that they are armed, have been involved in chaos and insecurity in the country, and are linked to financial corruption, but the Jihadists object such allegations. In fact, the removal of the Jihadist candidates from the election list is a controversial issue that can create hurdle on the way of electoral procedure, as they are very influential in their constituencies. If the commission persists on its decision, it is likely that the jihadists disrupt the elections altogether.

The second point is that there is a serious disagreement between the political parties and the government over the use of biometric technology and smart elections, as the government has apparently decided not to use those technologies in contrast to what the political parties suggest. The political parties argue that smart elections will reduce the risk of rigging, while also suspecting government forces to cheat in the elections.

Also, the Afghan government has announced that nine million people have registered for the elections, while the parties believe that the number of registered voters does not exceed three million.

Another problem is the regions where the government has no control, and where the Taliban will probably disrupt the elections. Therefore, the legitimacy of a parliament that is faced with such issues comes under question. Nevertheless, the government is determined to hold the elections in the forthcoming October. 

Q: How will the elections be held in the Taliban-controlled regions?

For now, it has been agreed to hold elections in the Taliban-controlled regions as soon as security and stability are governed in those districts.

Question: Given the presence of armed groups and Jihadists in Afghanistan, can the elections be held in a secure environment?

If the jihadist commanders, who are excluded from the electoral list, namely, about 10 to 12 jihadists who are influential in their constituencies, do not reach to a mutual understanding with the election commission and with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, they are capable of spreading chaos throughout the country and even disrupt elections. This is a radical issue and may lead to armed conflicts.

The second security issue is related to ISIS and the Taliban forces who will also try to attack polling stations and prevent a fair and unrigged election to take place.

Therefore, if the elections are held without the consent of powerful players, especially the jihadist forces, an outbreak of intensified armed conflicts in different regions, both during and after the elections, would be expected.

Q: Do the elections have an impact on Tehran-Kabul relations and how does Iran look at them?

The principled policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran is to maintain stability and security in Afghanistan and views any move that leads to instability in its neighbouring country as undesirable and condemnable. Since there is a perception that once Afghanistan becomes insecure, the insecurity can flow to its neighbouring Iran, Tehran always wishes that a national consensus on all issues, including electoral concerns, to be achieved in Afghanistan.

 If various Afghan groups reach no agreement and each of them treads upon its own path, security in Afghanistan will collapse, which will also affect Iran’s security. Therefore, the main goal of Iran is to help Afghanistan to organize an unrigged election in the country. However, from a political viewpoint, disputes between Iran and Afghanistan on border and water issues will not be much affected by the change of Afghan parliament. But it is obvious that the interests of the two neighbouring countries require joint efforts of the two governments to achieve mutual agreement on those issues.