Speaking in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, Diako Hosseini referred to the remarks of the US President at the meeting of the member states of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council in Jeddah that the US will not leave any vacuum in the Middle East region to Russia, China, or Iran. “We will seek to build on this moment with active, principled, American leadership,” he added.
At least since the beginning of the administration of Barack Obama in 2008, this assumption became common in the American society, both among the public opinion and among the elites of Washington, that the United States is too involved in conflicts in distant regions, the losses and costs of which are much greater than its benefits, including what it experienced in Iraq and Afghanistan.
US concern about consequences of sudden withdrawal
He added: It was this platform that provided the conditions for Obama’s victory at that time, and at the same time, the US paid more attention to the issue of China’s rise. This issue was raised that the US should exercise more restraint in relation to areas that are not the main priority of the US, and focus more attention politically and on military budgets to East Asia, where China is present.
The expert on international affairs said: After that, although Trump did not have any clear and specific strategy regarding the entire Middle East, more or less the same view was followed during his time. During the Biden era, since many elites in power are the same figures of the Obama administration, they follow the same line of thinking; but with the warning that sudden reduction of the US presence or political and military interventions in the Middle East region could pave the way for China and Russia or regional powers like Iran to fill in such vacuum.
Hosseini continued: In addition, the United States is worried that its partners and allies in this region, to disappoint espair of the United States, will move towards independent arms races, including attempts to acquire nuclear weapons, or join forces with emerging powers such as China and Russia which will actually increase the sphere of influence of competitors, to the detriment of the United States.
Saying that from the US point of view, the results of this sudden withdrawal could be the resurgence of terrorism or interstate violence and conflicts that threaten its interests in this region which is effective in global energy stability, and added: Now this conclusion has been formed in the United States that this country, while continuing to refrain from costly military and political interventions in the Middle East, assures its partners that it will be ready to take care of them in the event of an emergency in the future.
Biden’s reassurance to US regional partners
The analyst of international affairs considered those concerns as the main reason for Biden’s trip to the Middle East and said: Biden assured his main partners, the Zionist regime and Saudi Arabia, that they should not worry about the sudden withdrawal of the United States and do not consider it as an indispensable ally.
Regarding continuation of the US presence in the Middle East, according to the considerations it has announced, Hosseini noted: Considering that there is still no clear data on whether the US has a realistic view of the future of this region or not, we can only have speculations in this regard. The realistic view is that the US cannot prevent the expansion of the sphere of influence of China and Russia, especially China. Compared to the past decade, they have wider trade agreements with the countries of the region, from the Zionist regime to Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran.
Emphasizing that the assumption that the US reassurance to its allies can prevent further Chinese influence in this region is definitely unrealistic, and this estimate is not correct about Russia and Iran, he continued: The realistic approach is that the US, while recognizes the increasing influence and interests of China and Russia in this region, at the same time tries to play its part while considering its responsibilities.
The expert on international issues stated that the US should accept that its efforts to isolate Iran in the past four decades have had negative results and actually led to the expansion of Iran’s natural influence, adding: It seems that considering the positions and also the composition of the decision-making team in the US regarding Iran, we have entered a period where they follow the strategy of containment combined with Iran’s interaction. This is the same strategy that the US has applied to China for nearly three decades. Of course, more transparent data is needed to be sure of this issue.
Hosseini emphasized: The US President’s trip to the Middle East and the statements he made were in response to concerns about influence of China and Russia. Despite the fact that the US has achieved more or less independence from oil energy in the Persian Gulf, it still realizes that the energy exported from the Persian Gulf to the outside of the region is very necessary to maintain the stability of the global economy. Trying to maintain the stability of waterways and energy resources and the countries with those resources is one of the hot spots of geopolitical intersections in our contemporary era. Therefore, increasing China’s influence in this region is one of the US concerns.
He added: This region is not only the Middle East from the US point of view, but also the Middle West from China’s point of view. Therefore, it is very important for the US to maintain the balance of power in such a way that China’s influence in this region is controlled and does not endanger the US interests.