Dr. Seyed Razi Emadi, in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, referring to the current political situation and problems in the way of formation of the government in Lebanon and noted: The current situation in Lebanon is not new, it is a situation that had already been predicted; for example, after Mr. Hassan Diab becoming the Prime Minister it was predictable that his cabinet would face serious problems, but the most important thing was that it faced strong internal and foreign opposition.

He referred to Saad Hariri’s mission to form the government after Hassan Diab’s resignation and added: Although under the status quo, Mr. Hassan Diab’s cabinet is no longer in office and has been overthrown, but the problem is that when Mr. Saad Hariri wants to form a new cabinet he must impose a series of conditions on the Lebanese political structure.

The expert on West Asia issues further clarified: The same conditions that failed to be met by the Prime Minister Hassan Diab in Lebanon, the next Prime Minister must be able to achieve those goals. For example, Mr. Saad Hariri has announced that he emphasizes on the formation of a “non-political government: A non-political cabinet means a cabinet in which the share of groups is not observed; but this is fundamentally contradictory.

Emadi continued: When the winning coalition in the parliamentary elections cannot appoint the prime minister and the prime minister is determined based on the quota system, how is it possible to ignore the quota system in the cabinet? This is a contradiction; because if that was not the case, basically Saad Hariri should not have become the prime minister, and the prime minister should have been appointed by the “Resistance Coalition”, which has won 68 seats in the parliament.

“Specialized Cabinet” Slogan Means a Cabinet without Hezbollah

He said: The next point is that both Saad Hariri and foreign players focus on Hezbollah in Lebanon. Basically, when it comes to the “Specialized Cabinet” or “Bureaucratic Government”, it means that there should not be a cabinet in which Hezbollah participates and we are now witnessing development of this situation in Lebanon.

The university professor stated that the reason for opposing Hassan Diab was that most of the Hezbollah and the Resistance Coalition had appointed him as the prime minister and supported his cabinet, adding: Today, they should move in a direction in which Hezbollah will not win, but this is a goal that has not been achieved through the ballot boxes of 2018, therefore, when it is not secured through the ballot boxes, it should be met with street demonstrations, obstruction of the formation of the government and imposition of such pressures.

Referring to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s remarks that sanctions are awaiting those who participate in a government with the presence of the Lebanese Hezbollah, Emadi said: Under the current situation, these pressures have been intensified and the reason is that presidency of Mr. Trump is coming to an end and the coalition with Trump, namely Saudi Arabia, the Zionist regime and the UAE, is hoping in the last days that through Trump they could intensify pressures with an aim of forming a Lebanese government they favor.

Continued Pressures on Hezbollah with Biden Coming to Power

He continued: On the other hand, Hezbollah is resisting, given the popular support and the majority it has in the Lebanese parliament, and will not allow the formation of such a government in Lebanon, but this does not mean that the pressures will subside with the Biden coming to power; I believe that this pressure will continue with the coming to power of the new US administration; but not in the way it exists today.

Emadi stressed: It seems that the new US administration will accept the political realities in that country, although it would continue to put pressures on Hezbollah because the truth is that Hezbollah is a movement that has popular support in Lebanon. Signs of the popular support were also seen through the ballot boxes. It was for the first time that a coalition managed to win an absolute majority, not a majority of seats, but an absolute majority of the seats, that is to say, fifty plus one percent!

Saad Hariri Cannot Ignore External Pressures

Referring to the efforts to constrain Hezbollah in Lebanon, the analyst of the West Asia affairs said that their roots were more in external pressures and noted: More than this issue to have internal roots, that is to say Hariri and his faction should pursue this issue, it has foreign roots, the pressure of the United States, the pressure of Saudi Arabia and to some extent France. Saad Hariri cannot move by ignoring these pressures, that is to say, if he wants to ignore these pressures and demands, he himself cannot become the prime minister, and his premiership had been depended on the support of those players.

Regarding some analysis that one should wait for the formation of the Biden administration to form the Lebanese government, he said: Foreign players are trying to form the cabinet before Trump leaves the White House; but I believe that if the interests of the Hezbollah and its allies in forming a cabinet are ignored, the Lebanese cabinet will not be formed within the next two or three months.

Emadi said the delay in forming the government has had precedent and added: In 2018, the formation of Mr. Saad Hariri’s cabinet took eight to nine months; but this time, despite external pressures on Saad Hariri and the power structure in Lebanon, there is a possibility that a cabinet will not be formed in Lebanon until the transfer of power in the White House because, Saad Hariri knows and understands the place of Hezbollah in the power structure. The fact that he insists so much is mostly due to the pressures imposed by his foreign supporters.