The Middle East in Transition: Re-reading the Regional Order after October 7

Farshid Bagherian, in a dialogue with the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, considers the events of October 7, 2023, a “decisive point” that not only started a new war but also transformed the foundations of the security and political interpretation of regional actors. According to him, “The consequences of that day and the cycle of reactions quickly led to a stage of redefining security and influence in the entire West Asia region; a stage in which relying solely on the Western military umbrella or bilateral agreements can no longer guarantee the security of a group of actors. The recent aggression of the Israeli regime against Qatar is an example of this situation, which was evident both in the intensity of the operations and in the multiplicity of new alliances.”
In Bagherian’s view, after the massacre in Gaza and the subsequent reactions, Tel Aviv has moved beyond a defensive or retaliatory phase and is pursuing a kind of expansionist policy beyond the borders of the occupied Palestine. The focus on swallowing Gaza and the West Bank, consolidating its presence in the southernmost points of Lebanon and the borders of Syria, and the strategic design for expanding influence can be analyzed within this framework. He describes this pattern as the continuation and redefinition of the “Greater Israel” project, warning that such an approach will lead to both population displacements and an intensification of regional reactions.
According to him, field data shows that southern Lebanon and parts of the Syrian borders have witnessed limited operations and occupations after October 2023 and the fall of [discussion of] Assad; a trend that continues and has provoked adverse reactions from the international community. These developments also disrupted the order desired by Turkey and other Arab actors for post-Assad Syria, and now we are witnessing competition between two different models of order for the future of Syria, one from the Israeli regime and the other from Turkey and some Arab governments.

The Attack on Doha: A Symbol of the Discrediting of Traditional Security Guarantees

One of the most prominent axes of Bagherian’s analysis is the “attack on Doha,” an event that he considers a “strategic blow” to the region’s conservative actors. These governments relied on cooperation with the United States to establish their desired order. According to him, this aggression showed that “hosting American forces or having strategic relations with Washington is not a definitive guarantee for security.” This perception led media and research centers to consider the attack on Doha as a point for a serious review of security relations in the Persian Gulf and traditional alliances.
In this regard, Bagherian predicts that we will witness a redefinition of military relations and the formation of new defense doctrines in Arab countries in cooperation with new actors. From his perspective, the political message of the Israeli regime’s attack went beyond the immediate damages, because the governments and elites of the region realized that relying on the American security umbrella is no longer, by itself, a guarantee of stability, and new national and regional options for deterrence and crisis management must be sought.

The Saudi-Pakistan Pact and the Emergence of Nuclear Balance in West Asia
Continuing, Bagherian refers to the “recent strategic pact between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan,” which, he says, within the framework of a collective security agreement, has involved West Asia in new identity and deterrence equations. In his view, this pact signifies the entry of a nuclear actor, namely Pakistan, into the Middle East equations. Bagherian says: “Pakistan’s explicit announcement of readiness to share its nuclear deterrent capabilities within the framework of the joint defense of Saudi Arabia could quickly transform the region’s deterrence structure and elevate Pakistan to an actor beyond South Asia.”
According to him, the consequences of this development are dual: on the one hand, increasing the level of deterrence may prevent some aggressive actions by the Israeli regime; but on the other hand, linking regional security to external nuclear capacity carries risks such as the proliferation of an arms race, ambiguity in the chain of command, and the possibility of miscalculation. Such a trend also raises serious questions about the credibility of non-proliferation and regional stability.
In another part of his analysis, Bagherian warns that the possibility of direct or limited conflict between the Israeli regime and actors such as Turkey or even Pakistan can no longer be ruled out. He considers the current situation in Syria a clear example of how the weakening of the central government has created space for foreign actors to establish spheres of influence.
According to him, “Syria has become a puzzle with too many pieces, and each part of it can be a trigger for cross-border clashes.” Field data also shows that the process of fragmentation of areas of influence began years ago and has increased concerns about the conflict spilling over to neighboring countries.
He emphasizes two fundamental points: first, in the event of an unconventional or regional conflict, Turkey’s membership in alliances like NATO does not guarantee immunity from confrontation; second, even limited attacks can lead to wider disputes and pressure on extraregional treaties.
In the overall outlook, Bagherian notes that the United States, Russia, and China are attempting to shape the new order to their advantage. Washington is trying to maintain its network of allies and prevent the expansion of rivals’ influence; Moscow and Beijing are also utilizing regional voids and dissatisfactions to strengthen their political and economic presence. This cross-border competition has complicated local scenarios and made their resolution dependent on the role of external actors. Especially China, which, by taking advantage of Moscow’s focus on the war in Ukraine, is seeking to gain an edge over Russia and consolidate its influence in West Asia.