Sadeq Nikazar – Senior Expert in International Relations

The Middle East 2025, especially the Middle East of Arab states, is not a colonial region under the tutelage of Western statesmen in the past, and they are relatively regional and international role-players. Undoubtedly, the number of middle powers in the Middle East that have taken effective measures in their region and are active in international flows is more significant than in other regions. This is important because: A. In other regions, the prevailing order is mostly one-dimensional. It follows the logic of economic cooperation, cross-border tension, and even security conflicts, such as conflicts with drug cartels. B. Due to its strategic nature, the Middle East contains most of the behavioral logics of the regions. Perhaps in no other region are identity, geopolitical, and even environmental issues as closely intertwined as in the Middle East; as a result, today, the logic of economic cooperation and presence in global value chains and trade corridors is the first priority, alongside all these tension-causing issues.

The presence of various international actors to benefit from the opportunities, resources, and capital accumulation that some governments have obtained from the sale of oil has established a new logic in the Middle East. If we consider the previous order based on security and geopolitical ideas, today we see geoeconomic logic in policymaking as the main parameter of the equations. The logic of geo-economics or the logic of war in the economic environment, especially with the economic war between China and the United States, has become a significant dominant force in the international system. With the rapid pace of globalization, this paradigm has also spread to the Middle East. Unlike previous centuries when ideas took years to spread throughout the world, the Middle East today is a smaller scale of the international system based on the geo-economic order.

The most crucial evidence of this claim is the strategic documents of Middle Eastern governments for a strong presence in global value chains and trade corridors. The fact that a small state like Jordan is one of the main links in the pharmaceutical value chain in the field of chemical fertilizers and generic drugs; and also the presence of Iraq in the development corridor that connects the port of Fao to the southern railway of Turkey, clearly shows the importance of the new logic.

On the other hand, the efforts of Arab governments such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to participate in the India-Middle East Economic Corridor (IMEC), and the launch of megaprojects in the field of artificial intelligence that have been launched despite a high probability of failure, are evidence of these governments’ efforts to redefine themselves in the geoeconomic order.

But the main question is, what is the reason for these governments’ efforts to redefine themselves and to be prominent in new relations and trends? To answer the hypothesis that governments have fully developed in their minds, tension and war in the international system are no longer just weapons, and today’s weapons are value-added, which makes others dependent on us.

Approximately in 2023, the destination of 65% of military weapons sold worldwide was Middle Eastern governments; of this sales volume, over 50% of purchases belonged to Saudi Arabia. So, with this assumption, Saudi Arabia will no longer have a security problem. But are all of Saudi Arabia’s security challenges summed up in its ontological security? Clearly not. The wealth that Saudi Arabia has acquired through oil sales requires further accumulation while maintaining security. Until the mid-20th century, when American and Western advisors controlled the economic affairs of Saudi Arabia and other Arab states, they directed this wealth towards the West in a colonialist manner. Still, today, this practice has changed to increasing wealth and the volume of accumulation and reinvestment of surplus consumption. Saudi Arabia and other Arab states, which were in a way under colonialism, have today become beneficial and influential allies of the same colonialists.

So the new picture of the Middle East is an economic picture that has become mixed with security and political issues due to the deep-rooted tension in the Middle East. Technological issues and the Persian Gulf corridor cannot be advanced with purely economic logic and without considering political and regional issues, and vice versa. For example, today, the Bab al-Mandab Strait, as the bottleneck of the Red Sea, is in the hands of the Yemeni Houthis, who have denied most governments access to the occupied territories through the Suez Canal and the Mediterranean Sea, which has made it impossible to transit a massive volume of products.

But, knowing this, what strategy should the Islamic Republic of Iran consider? In short, the first step should avoid geopolitical logic at the decision-making level and not see the equations as purely territorial and security-related. Instead, while the challenges are territorial, the economic logic that has dominated the environment must be understood. In other words, even if we have a security action with geopolitical requirements, we must also consider geoeconomic logic in pursuing our goals. Following this logic will also lead to a change in our security strategy in the second step. Thus, firstly, the initiative and determination of the threshold of any tension will be in the hands of Iran. Secondly, with this logic, security approaches are also planned and implemented with a long-term goal while achieving the goals.

The importance of regional arrangements accompanying the geo-economic order is undeniable, because the international system has taken such a direction. For this reason, more attention should be paid to the concepts and ideas that make it possible to be present in this order in formulating the Islamic Republic of Iran’s grand strategy.

Secondly, with this logic, security approaches are also planned and implemented with a long-term goal, leading to a relative de-escalation in the region between Iran and its neighbors while achieving security goals.

The importance of regional arrangements accompanying the geo-economic order is undeniable, because the international system has taken such a direction. For this reason, more attention should be paid to the concepts and ideas that make it possible to be present in this order in formulating the Islamic Republic of Iran’s grand strategy.