Dr. Hussein Ibrahim Nia – Researcher on Egyptian Affairs

Egypt has long played a pivotal role in the Palestinian-Israeli peace process and has actively participated in ceasefire negotiations and mediation between Hamas and the Zionist regime. Due to its geographical location and bordering Gaza, Egypt is particularly concerned about the consequences of instability in the region for its internal security. It is, therefore, making great efforts to prevent the escalation of conflicts.

However, at the regional level, Egypt, while trying to maintain the balance of power in the Middle East and strengthen its relations with Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, has also played an active role in crises such as Syria, Yemen, and Libya. In addition, Egypt is continuously strengthening its strategic relations with Western countries and the United States. Domestically, Egypt’s concerns about the threat posed by radical Islamist movements that may exploit regional crises such as Gaza have made the country highly sensitive to security issues.

In this regard, Gaza, as a densely populated region at the center of political, humanitarian, and military crises, remains one of the most contentious areas in the Middle East. As a key actor with geopolitical and political interests in Gaza, Egypt has always been trying to manage humanitarian crises and facilitate ceasefires. However, recent developments, including reports of the temporary relocation of 500,000 Palestinians from Gaza to North Sinai and the formation of a Palestinian committee to manage Gaza, have raised concerns about changes in Egyptian foreign policy and their impact on the future of Gaza. These developments may have significant implications for the peace and stability process in Gaza and the region. On the other hand, Egypt has long been involved in the Palestinian issue and the Palestinian conflict with the Israeli regime. In recent years, due to its geographical location and historical relations with the Palestinians, the country has played a prominent role in mediating ceasefire negotiations and facilitating interactions between the Israeli regime and the Palestinians, especially groups such as Hamas. The country is also known as a host to many Palestinian refugees and an important player in regional political processes. However, Egypt has always been concerned about the influence of extremist and terrorist groups such as ISIS in Gaza, in addition to supporting Palestinian rights.
Nonetheless, there have been recent reports that Egypt may be considering temporarily relocating up to 500,000 to 700,000 Gaza residents to North Sinai. Of course, these reports were met with a swift reaction from the Egyptian government, which quickly denied these claims and announced that no decision had been made to relocate the Gaza population to Sinai. This denial may be part of a defensive policy and strategy aimed at preserving Egypt’s image as a regional power that does not support any population movement in Gaza.

Another significant development that received less attention is the announcement of the formation of a Palestinian committee to manage Gaza for six months. This committee will be composed of trans-factional and non-partisan figures and technocrats and will assume responsibility for the administration of Gaza on an interim basis. This move represents a significant change in the country’s policies, especially towards Hamas, which has always had close relations with Egypt. The Egyptian Foreign Minister also announced that an agreement has been reached regarding forming a committee of academic and non-partisan figures not affiliated with any Palestinian political or military groups or factions. This committee will be responsible for the administration of Gaza for only six months, and eventually, the Palestinian Authority is to assume full responsibility.

But the main point is that the quick denial of reports of the relocation of Gaza residents to North Sinai while appearing to be a defensive move, raises questions about Egypt’s long-term goals and how it should engage with Gaza. Moreover, on the one hand, Egypt is keen to avoid any move that could lead to a large-scale displacement of the population from Gaza. Such a move could have serious humanitarian and security implications and could destabilize North Sinai, a region that already faces security threats. Thus, Egypt appears to be trying to maintain its position as a regional power that contributes to the reconstruction of Gaza without taking responsibility for the relocation.

////On the other hand, the formation of a technocratic committee to temporarily govern Gaza indicates Egypt’s willingness to play a more significant role in the future of Gaza. This committee is supposed to temporarily take over the responsibility of governing Gaza without the interference of groups such as Hamas. This development could reflect changes in Egypt’s relations with Hamas. Egypt may be trying to create a new balance in Gaza by supporting the Palestinian Authority and preventing Hamas’s influence. This move may be part of a larger Egyptian strategy to create a unified Palestinian state under the control of the PA, which is increasingly opposed to Islamist policies.

However, these changes in Egypt’s approach to Gaza could have far-reaching implications for the region’s future. Here are some of the most important implications:

1. Exacerbation of Palestinian political divisions: The formation of a technocratic committee to govern Gaza, especially if Hamas is excluded, could deepen existing divisions in Palestinian domestic politics. Hamas may see this as an attack on its legitimacy in Gaza, which could increase tensions and opposition within Gaza and other Palestinian areas.
2. Humanitarian impacts: The humanitarian situation in Gaza could worsen if political instability continues. The absence of a unified and effective Palestinian state could prevent the health, education, and economic crises in Gaza from being addressed. Instability in Gaza would create further problems for the region’s people, especially in providing basic services.
3. Increased extremism and terrorism: If Hamas’s influence in Gaza diminishes, other extremist groups such as ISIS or other jihadist organizations may exploit this power vacuum. This could lead to increased violence and instability in Gaza and the surrounding areas.
4. Disruption in Egyptian-Israeli relations: Any direct Egyptian involvement in the management of Gaza could complicate its relations with Israel. Israel has serious concerns about the return of military activity in Gaza and increased security threats on its borders. Egypt is trying to ensure that these developments do not become an obstacle to its positive and security relations with Israel.
5. Security threats to North Sinai: Any population movement from Gaza to North Sinai could pose serious security risks to the region. North Sinai is already facing significant security problems, including militant activity, and any population movement could complicate the situation further.

In this regard, there is no doubt that Egypt’s approach to Gaza has undergone significant strategic changes in recent years aimed at managing the Gaza crisis without assuming direct human and financial responsibilities. Egypt, in particular, by emphasizing the formation of a technocratic committee to govern Gaza temporarily and rejecting reports of the displacement of the Gaza population to North Sinai, is trying to play a key role in the future of the region while at the same time avoiding the internal Palestinian conflicts and the humanitarian crisis that Gaza is facing. This new approach by Egypt may directly affect its relations with Palestinian groups, especially Hamas, and deepen the existing rifts between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority. By excluding Palestinian groups from the administration of Gaza and establishing a non-partisan committee, Egypt wants to create a neutral space for the reconstruction of Gaza and avoid factional conflicts. However, this approach could further instability inside Gaza and exacerbate the humanitarian crisis. The denial of reports of the Gaza population being relocated to Sinai also clearly demonstrates Egypt’s concern about the security and humanitarian consequences of such an action, especially as Egypt is concerned about the negative effects on the security situation in North Sinai and its relations with Arab countries. These changes in Egyptian policy may also affect its relations with the Israeli regime and regional countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as they may increase the influence of resistance groups in Gaza and further complicate security and political crises. In general, Egypt is always careful in its foreign policy approach to ensure that its new policy does not cause further complications in the internal social and political sphere of Palestine and negative effects on the humanitarian situation in Gaza. It also considers the effects of these policies on regional and international relations. But the final point is that ultimately, Egypt’s foreign policy towards Gaza, as a mediator, tries to simultaneously ensure the security interests of the Israeli regime and the position of the Palestinians and maintain internal and regional stability.