In an interview with the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations website about Trump’s approach toward Russia during his second term of presidency, Mahmoud Shouri stated: One point about the new Trump presidency that should be noted is that we should not occupy our minds with the stereotypes of the previous Trump presidency. The new Trump has serious differences from the previous Trump, and the immaturity that existed in the past, as well as the accusations that were raised during the last term about Russia having played a role in the results of the US elections and the effects they were able to have in terms of cyberspace, do not apply to Trump in the second term.

He continued: “During the current Trump presidency, there is a serious obstacle in the way of improving Moscow-Washington relations and resolving challenges and tensions, and that is the war in Ukraine. The question is, how does Trump want to manage this war? It seems that, at present, only Trump has the will to end the war in Ukraine. Of course, Putin has also reacted positively to this issue and has taken a good approach, but it seems the two sides have a vague resolve to sit at the negotiating table. In reality, there are still severe obstacles in the relations between the two sides, and it is not clear whether they can reach a common ground. The international affairs expert clarified: “The problem is that Moscow’s readiness to negotiate to end the war in Ukraine does not mean its readiness to make concessions, and the same situation prevails on the other side. Another reality is that the gap between the demands of the United States and Russia is big, and it is not clear that Russia can trust the United States in this regard.” Russia is highly distrustful of the US’s ability to fulfill its promises to stop the war and conflict because it has the experience of the Minsk negotiations.

Shouri continued: There is also the issue of Ukraine and Europe, which they must be satisfied with to reach a common ground to end the war.

He continued by stating that Trump is seeking to define the areas of cooperation in a way that will encourage the Russians, in particular, to negotiate and make a deal, saying Trump’s issue is not at all an issue of arms control or an agreement to reduce nuclear weapons; what he is seeking is to stop the conflict. His understanding is that war cannot achieve America’s goals on the international level, which is why he is trying to define economic benefits for America from all its interactions.

The international affairs expert added that Trump has a pragmatic view of macro and micro issues, stating that the issue will definitely lead to securing America’s interests and does not have an ideological view.

Regarding the timing of reaching an agreement to end the war in Ukraine during the Trump era, Shouri said: “It is not possible to make predictions with certainty in this regard. The level of war and conflict may decrease, or both sides may show some goodwill, pave the way for further talks, and reduce the escalation of the conflict. In this regard, further military assistance to Ukraine will likely be sharply reduced. However, reaching an agreement faces many obstacles, and it is unlikely that a deal will be reached within four years. Overall, the conditions for the Russians to trust the United States are not well prepared.

Regarding other important issues the United States and Russia are likely to negotiate or have tension over during this period, he said: “Another issue that could be raised between the two countries is the Arctic issue, which Trump is interested in strengthening American access to. Since they share a common area with Russia in this region, there will definitely be challenges.”