Peyman Hassani, International Law Researcher

Ukraine has faced severe challenges in providing weapons and ammunition and recruiting troops. This situation, along With Russia’s recent tactical advances, has prompted the West to make a serious change in the type and amount of support it gives Ukraine. Recently, the French president emphasized that if this situation continues, the possibility of sending troops to fight against Russia in Ukraine should not be ruled out by NATO members.

From the point of view of Western countries, if Ukraine cannot stop Russia, the second optimal option is war with Russia on Ukrainian soil. Although this option has far-reaching consequences and even leads to the spread of the war, for the West, it is considered better than Russia’s victory in the Ukraine war and even a war with Russia on the territory of NATO member countries in Europe. Since Russia cannot and does not want to give up its military goals, the West and Europe will probably change the way and the amount of their support for Ukraine, and Russia’s motivation for war will increase. For example, holding a nuclear drill by Russia is a warning from this country to the West that Moscow is ready to raise the threshold of tension.

Ukraine and some Western countries have signed security agreements in the past months, including Germany, England, Holland, and Denmark. It seems that the signing of such agreements will happen after Ukraine’s non-membership in NATO to be a long-term guarantee for this country in line with the support of Western countries. In the case of signing a security agreement with America, this action on the part of Russia will be interpreted as the West’s attempt to continue the war, the failure of this country, and the erosion of its capabilities.

At the end of 1402, the European Union approved the allocation of 50 billion euros in financial aid to Kyiv until 2027. Along with allocating the support package, Europe also agreed to pay Ukraine the profits from Russia’s frozen assets in Europe. The United States also approved a $60 billion aid package at the beginning of 1403 to help Ukraine. Even the US Secretary of State said that the US plans to use Moscow’s frozen assets to rebuild Ukraine. These events show the serious determination of the West to confront Russia fully.

In addition to financial and political aid, the West has provided Ukraine with new weapons that can affect the fate of the war. Previously, Western arms aid was such that it allowed Ukraine to defend itself on its own soil. But the new weapons even provide the possibility of targeting Russia within its own territory. Considering this aid, it is possible that Ukraine will design and implement a new counterattack against Russia to take back the territories it has lost.

After Ukraine failed to launch a counterattack against Russia last summer, Russia intensified its attacks on some areas and even seized new territories. The Russians announced their goal of capturing these areas (especially Kharkiv) to create a buffer zone on the Ukrainian border to prevent Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory, especially in the Belgorod area.

The approval of new support packages for Ukraine, the delivery of new weapons to this country, and the positions of some Western officials regarding the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine prompted the Russian Ministry of Defense, in response to these new threats, to conduct an exercise to practice the preparation and deployment of tactical nuclear weapons with the aim of simulated use of these weapons in the battlefield. In any case, this event can be considered a new and even important step in raising the threshold of tension and strengthening the possibility of a conflict between Russia and Western countries supporting Ukraine.

It seems that the favorable and low-cost option for the West is the continuation of the war of attrition and the analysis of Russia’s combat capabilities. However, if the support packages and new weapons provided to Ukraine cannot adequately satisfy the wishes of Western countries, there is a possibility of direct entry into the conflicts from the West. The Europeans interpret the failure of Ukraine’s leadership in confronting the Russian war machine as a vital threat to them. However, it seems that the West will allow Ukraine to use new weapons to target Russian targets on Russian soil before choosing the path of direct conflict. Future battlefield developments in Kharkiv province and the Belgorod region will significantly impact the implementation of the direct conflict scenario.

Any action by the West to weaken Russia has been accompanied by strong reactions from this country. Since Russia does not have the ability and possibility to confront the West in a conventional war, this country’s nuclear exercise should be interpreted as a serious warning to the West. It seems that Russia intends to carry out such actions to convey the message to the West that any decision to increase the level of tensions will be accompanied by a serious and even unconventional response from Russia. Raising the threshold of nuclear tension between Russia and the West seems an important option now available to Russia to inform the West of the dire consequences of its decisions. Nuclear deterrence is the most important option in balancing Russia against the West.

Finally, it must be said that if the situation continues like this, not only can there be no hope for peace and the end of the war in Ukraine, but basically, any scenario for reconciliation between the parties will be invalidated. In addition, Ukraine is unlikely to agree to peace talks without recapturing the territories occupied by Russia. Therefore, among the two scenarios of the continuation of the war of attrition and the scenario of direct conflict, it should be said that the least costly option is the continuation of the war of attrition and the analysis of Russia’s war powers and capabilities. However, it should not be forgotten that developments in the field, including in the Kharkiv and Belgorod regions, can also strengthen the scenario of direct conflict.