Speaking to the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, Morteza Makki said that “from the point of view of Russian statesmen, the war in Ukraine is a war with the entire Western world, and the Russians consider the development of NATO a serious threat to their national security.”

He continued that “Russia’s threat to the membership of Finland and Sweden in the NATO treaty can also be examined in the same framework because Finland’s 1300-kilometer border with Russia and the proximity of this country’s borders with a NATO member (Finland) is considered a danger for Russia.”

This expert also explained in the analysis of this Russian claim that “it does not seem that Russia’s threats to the membership of Finland and Sweden in NATO go beyond political threats and the deployment of conventional and unconventional weapons. Russia is so engrossed in the war in Ukraine that it is unlikely to open a new front to confront the West”.

Also, referring to the meeting of the finance ministers of the Group of Seven in Japan and emphasizing the continuation and expansion of sanctions against Russia, the expert on European issues said that “This shows that in the near and medium term, we cannot witness political and diplomatic movements in the political arena in the Ukraine war. Especially since the Americans have implemented the policy of containing China operationally, one of their motivations for the policy of containing China is the concern of cooperation between China and Russia, which can challenge American policies in the region and the world”.

Makki explained that the Ukraine crisis is one of the most important variables affecting the relations between Russia and Europe. He said that “the war process in Ukraine has entered the erosion stage, and there is no clear prospect that shows that the parties to this crisis and the regional and international actors will reach a point of agreement.”

Analyzing the history of tensions between Moscow and the West, Mackey said, “When we look at the relations and policies between Russia and the West in the past three decades, it was expected that this political confrontation would reach tension and crisis at some point. During the Georgian crisis, the European governments adopted a flexible policy towards Russia to manage the tension. They did not allow the crisis in Georgia in 2008 to become a point of tension and a proxy war between Russia and the Western parties supporting Georgia. That year, European governments centered on France and Germany stated that Georgia and Ukraine would not have a place in NATO soon.”

He continued that “however, after the annexation of Crimea to Russia in 2014, the crisis in the relations between Russia and the West entered a new phase, and the Westerners launched extensive economic sanctions against Russia for the first time after the collapse of the Soviet Union. They even expelled Russia from the European Security and Cooperation Organization”.

This expert said that “the continuation of tension in relations between Russia and the West after the Crimea crisis in 2022 reached a point where, according to the Russians, Ukraine’s determination to join NATO left no choice but to attack this country, and this attack, as predicted, is a trap for Russia planted by the United States.”

Makki emphasized that “because the Americans, unlike the Europeans, favored a more strict and anti-Russian policy than the Europeans. Until the time of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the powerful countries of the European Union, especially France, and Germany, refused to react strongly to Russia’s maneuvers on the borders of Ukraine and continued to talk about negotiations with the Russians to manage the crisis”.

According to this expert, to the extent that French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Schulz went to Moscow, and despite severe criticism from the partners of these two countries in Eastern Europe, they negotiated with Putin and tried to exercise restraint and avoid attacking Ukraine.

“But these political consultations, with the continuation of Ukraine’s determination to join NATO and refraining from its positions close to the West, prompted Russia to install a new government in Kyiv by occupying Ukraine. But contrary to the assumptions and calculations of the Russian army and the rulers of the Kremlin, the Russian military stopped behind the gates of Kyiv and had no choice but to retreat and be content with maintaining their possessions in eastern Ukraine.”

The expert on European issues explained that “for more than a year and a few months since the Russian attack on Ukraine, the Europeans, centered on France, have shown their interest in ending the war and managing the crisis in Ukraine. The peak of Macron’s efforts and consultations in this regard goes back to his visit to Beijing and an invitation to Xi Jinping to play a role in the Ukraine crisis, followed by negative reactions from both the United States and a large part of European countries”.

Makki also explained that “although the Europeans are interested in preventing the erosion of the Ukraine crisis, their efforts in the past few months have shown that they are not able to use their soft power independently in this direction, and there is no way but to align and accompany the US in supporting the Ukrainian government and preventing Russian advances.”

He emphasized that “for the American government, its policy towards Russia is almost clear and certain, and that is to weaken this country as much as possible and impose a heavy defeat on Russia in the Ukraine war.”

Pointing out that the war in Ukraine has become a war of honor for the Moscow government, Makki added that “any retreat on the field and political level is considered a heavy defeat for the Russian government. Until many times even the discussion of using nuclear weapons or deploying these weapons on the borders of Russia and Belarus has been raised to show how determined Russia is to win and keep its possessions in eastern Ukraine”.

In the end, the expert on European issues explained that the crisis in Ukraine is not limited to Ukraine, but it is the point of confrontation between Russia and the West. “Napoleon in the 19th century and Hitler in the 20th century tried to seize a large part of Russian territory, and both dictators were stopped behind the gates of Moscow.”