Although the likelihood of a world war like the World War II arising from those conflicts is very low, the international chess arena of the big powers will see more challenging strategies. The growing weight of wars in technology, cyber and electronics, and even biologic and economic areas, and the focus on increasing global market share are the factors that have created a new multipolar version of the Cold War. Multipolar, because the unipolar monopoly of the United States in the post-Cold War era with the former Soviet Union has become a new multipolar with the rise of powers such as China and India and the rise of the European Union. However, the individual power and influence of those poles are different from each other, and the influential or economic-political powers are more trying to turn this multipolar rivalry into a cartel rivalry; that is, China or Russia at the head of the Eastern cartel and the United States or the European Union at the head of the Western cartel. Although in a post-communist world that remembers the severe inefficiencies of the dictatorial and unnatural system in the former Soviet Union and China before the 1980s, the West and the East differ from traditional Cold War-era concepts.
The question now is, where the future of those divisions and conflicts will go? Some experts believed that the end of Trump’s tenure in the White House would be the end of the global conflict, but the conflict of interest, regardless of Trump’s position and socio-political position in the United States, is real and ongoing. At present, both the conflict groups, the European Union, Britain and the United States, or the Group of Seven cartel, are on one side, and China, along with Russia and the other countries in its cartel, are on the other side. Although Russia’s approach is more reactionary and implicit, China has an active approach to the economy. Although Biden sent signals of passivity at the beginning of his career, the recent positions of the Group of Seven have shown that they, too, have taken an active position and have made it clear; therefore, active strategies in the field of politics and economics will determine the future of those conflicts.
But in terms of possible future developments in the world, a significant portion of future research studies have concluded that the world has been rebuilding its structure since 2008 when Russia invaded Georgia and the financial crisis caused by unsecured loans arose, and during this restructuring, the European Union entered a crisis that it could not solve, and it has been intensified. The European Union will never regain its former unity, and even if it survives the crisis safely, it will be much more limited and fragmented in the coming decade. This was an opportunity for China to increase its influence on the continent by providing financial assistance to Europe. It does not seem that the free trade zone can continue to function without upgrading the system of supporting domestic production.
On the other hand, the field of international conflict is now focused on the so-called Janus technologies, ICT, space and genetic-therapy; of course, other areas are also important, but the global prevalence of Covid-19 virus has made those technologies even more important. Janus technologies refers to technologies that empower individuals in local communities, regardless of the direct policy of local governments. For example, a person in country A can use this technology to do business with the citizens of country B and C. Such a situation leads the world to the point where for the citizens of any country, the developments of the countries of origin of Janus technologies become important, and the phenomenon of multilevel citizenship is formed, which affects the strategies of world powers. For example, the vision of “Made in China 2025” means that China is trying to become the exclusive hub of Janus technologies and consolidate its global influence through Janusian influence among the citizens of different countries; a strategy that is in line with policies aimed at increasing its national influence, such as the Silk Road.
Although the United States is still ahead of China in terms of Janus technology, the signal from the G7 and NATO leaders in their willingness to confront Russia and China indicates that on one side of the conflict will be the US cartel and on the other China and Russia. China is playing with Russia’s positions in many areas, but Russia is a tactical ally and may temporarily change positions if it changes its relations or confronts the European Union on energy issues and Eastern Europe. For this reason, China is more focused on companionship at the trans-regional level, and is even trying to find common ground in the Group of Seven cartel, which has advanced this strategy by commodity financing and financial dependence and market dominance.