EU Reaction to Belarus Measure

Having condemned the measure taken by Belarus to make an emergency landing, the European leaders reacted and added that new sanctions will be imposed against Belarus. If Lukashenko will not withdraw from his policies, more sanctions will be applied as the beginning of a cycle of long term sanctions. The European Council has also strongly condemned the measure of Belarussian government in its meeting. It has called for freedom of Roman Protasevich and independent investigations on the matter. The European Commission has also said that 3 billion euro of aids to Belarus will be made only when the transition to democracy will take place, i.e. a kind of regime change in the country. Heiko Maas, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Germany said the sanctions must be effective, and aiming at trade sections of Belarus which are important for the country’s economy. Sanctions should also prevent the issuance of government bonds by Belarus, because Lukashenko’s behavior is unpredictable.

Sanctions; interested instrument of the West during the recent years

Imposition of economic sanctions have become an instrument of interest of many Western politicians in recent years which include banning or prohibiting of trade with a certain country, boycotting individuals or different institutions. European countries as well as the US have imposed many different sanctions against Belarus during 27 years of Lukashenko’s tenure of office. For example, the European Union imposed arms sanctions against Minsk in 2004 followed by the disappearance of some opponents, a journalist and a Belarussian businessman. However, it was after 2016 when most of the sanctions were lifted after relations between the two sides were improved. Yet, after the presidential election of 2020 and staging extensive protests which were quelled, the EU imposed more sanctions. 88 individuals and 7 foundations were boycotted. In addition to banning the airspace of the European Union for Belarussian planes and also banning the European planes from flying over the airspace of Belarus, new economic sanctions will be imposed as well. Freezing the assets and banning the issue of visa for over 80 Belarussian officials including Lukashenko and his son alleged for quelling those who protested against the result of the election in last August, are all among the measures which will be taken by the European Union. In one week before the sanctions entered into effect, 3300 sorties were registered over the airspace of Belarus, of which 66 had landed in the country. Belarus could earn up to 70000 euros from flies per day. Although the figure is considerable but it can not leave a remarkable effect on the economy of Belarus. The US President Biden has said he is reviewing suitable options in coordination with the EU to make Belarus accountable for her measures. Washington has also banned making business with 9 important oil and petrochemical companies and boycotted 109 officials of the country as well.

Belarus & Russia reaction to the EU sanctions

Belarussian government has threatened to retaliate and take reciprocal action in reaction to the sanctions imposed by the EU. For example, before his meeting with Vladimir Putin in Sochi, Lukashenko warned that his respective country will no more impede the influx of migrants or smuggling drugs into Western European countries and the West should confront the challenges alone. He also said:” He would replace the rapidly developing Asia with the Old Europe”. Lukashenko called the European sanctions as hybrid war to destroy Belarus as well as the collaboration of internal and external malevolent persons who have changed the methods of their attacks against Belarussian government. Of course, their next target would be Russia. One of the officials of Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has also said in reaction to the European sanctions that Russia will defend and help Belarus. Lavrov, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia has called Lukashenko measures as completely reasonable and called for other countries to have a logical assessment about the situation. Moscow, however, has cancelled some flights from European countries like Austria and France and did not issue overfly permission to planes flying from these two countries. Moscow took the measure after the EU instruction which said the European airlines should change their routine flights and should not overfly the Belarussian airspace anymore. Hence, Minsk will be deprived from millions of dollars.

EU challenges in Belarus

Like Armenia, Belarus has Euro-phil and Russo-phil identities and dependent on technical and economic assistance of both Russia and the EU. It has become like Ukraine, a competition field between the West and Russia. The EU has called Lukashenko as the last dictator of Europe for the past several years. It has been looking for Belarus to be out of the Russian influence. But it seems that the hope has been faded at present situation. Brussels, however, continues its efforts to change the leadership in Belarus through threats and opportunities. Some believe that when the state-run companies have dominance over the economy of the country, and when the Belarussian economy depends on Russia, Minsk will not face a serious challenge; because almost half of Belarussian made commodities are exported to Russia and only 24% of her commodities opened their ways into the European Union markets. There are different opinions about the severity of sanctions among Western states. Some believe that there must be a balance between chastisement of Belarussian officials and avoidance of closer relations of the country with Russia. In fact, there is a concern that extensive and overall sanctions may damage the trade of Belarus, without Lukashenko quits his policies. On the other side, some believe that recent measures of Belarus show that Lukashenko has completely turned his back to the West and thus has no concern about the reaction of the international community. It can be said that the only way to exert pressure on Belarus is to weaken the relations between Minsk and Moscow. Imposition of flight restrictions can be more effective than partial sanctions because in the absence of European commodities and machinery, Russia will be able to fill the gap and to provide these services but there is no alternative for the European Union airports and airspace.

In general, it can be said that the European Union does not have enough leverages to influence Minsk. In order to play an effective role in Belarus and, of course, become a geopolitical activist, it should admit bitter realities about itself. Relations between Brussels and Minsk improved in 2014-2020. The European Union had a good opportunity to strengthen its position in Belarus and become an important activist in the country. However, the opportunity was lost. Lukashenko expressed his interest to deepen relations with Brussels time and again during the period. Brussels, instead, put forward preconditions. On the other hand, Russia can’t accept that the leaders of his allies become unseated through color revolutions, and new leaders who are either anti-Russia or unpredictable take office. That’s why Russians prefer a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. The Russian position will not change and the European Union can’t do otherwise to proceed.