It is now more than six years since the outbreak of war. Within this six years, very important developments happened on Yemen dossier which was clandestinely and basically aimed at political and security attachment of the country to Saudi Arabia, toppling Ansarollah, and ultimately returning to power the ousted and dependent government of  Mansur Hadi, all on Mohammad Bin Salman table, the young Saudi crown prince.

 

Summary of exit from Yemen War

If we want to summarize a scientific exit based on data plus field and political information of Saudi war in Yemen, we should describe it as such: Despite all-out external supports of every type, Saudi Arabia has confronted a very “difficult strategic“ situation in an unequal war where there is no way out. Riyadh can not take herself out of this quagmire easily specially with reference to the situations which they could not achieve even the minimum of what they had declared within the past over six years.

In order to give an idea about the difficult situation of Saudi Arabia in Yemen, it is necessary to briefly point out the most recent and important field and political developments in Yemen.

Presently, conflicts in Maareb have turned out to be the center-piece of field and political developments. Maareb is from one hand very close to Sanaa, the Yemeni capital, and from other hand it is the place with many oil and gas resevoirs. Thus, it is the economic core of the country. Oil reservoirs of Maareb along with Al-jowf and Al-shabouh is so rich to turn the region into the second largest oil field of Saudi peninsula followed by eastern oil regions of Saudi Arabia. Maareb is also the most important and the last base for pro-Mansur forces, Liberation of which would practically mean the end of the fled Mansur government and opening of a new chapter in the history of the country. Having liberated Maareb, Ansarollah who have two third of the Yemeni residential areas at their disposal, will be able to dominate 90% of the northern provinces of the country. This will also enable the revolutionaries to have access to oil and water reservoirs of Maareb which will consequently reduced part of pressures exerted on Ansarollah followed by Yemeni surrounding. Access to Maareb would mean the situation for Saudi-led coalition against Ansarollah will be more complicated than before.

 

Therefore, reaching to Maareb gateways and imminent liberation of the city, which has special geo-economic, geo-politic and strategic importance would mean no less than definite failure of Saudi Arabia in the war. Yemenis have launched their drone and missile attacks against key centers of Saudi Arabia, fleeing from their powerful missile systems, and practically have weakened Saudi Arabia in the region.

 

Saudis Miscalculation in Yemen

In their plan to attack Yemen and even their persistence to continue the attacks, Saudis had, wantedly or unwantedly, neglected a very important issue; while Saudis had defined the battle-field, political and military deletion of Ansarollah and Yemeni revolutionaries from internal equations as one of their high objectives, they had forgotten that before Saudis and during decades, players stronger than them like Israel had failed to defeat resisting groups smaller than Ansarollah in the region. This was the very “miscalculation” and unrealistic approach of Saudis in their attack against Yemen that today have practically led them to fail achieving their regional goals, especially at the gateway of Yemen.

 

Saudi U-turn from its previous positions

Saudi Arabia that once had the power to make coalition to follow up her objectives and plans, has no chance today to continue war in Yemen and confronting approach against Iran as well as making coaltion against both. Today, Saudi Arabia is in such a situation that Israeli newspaper Ha’aretz call it “anxious and isolated kingdom with bitter perspective.”

Stabilized and expanding power as well as situation of resistance in Yemen from one hand, and Saudis’ failure in Yemen from other hand, along with the failure of the US maximum pressure strategy against Iran which has led to resumption of serious JCPOA negotiations are among effective elements that have made Saudis to withdraw from their previous positions. In his recent interview, Mohammad bin Salman used unprecedented literature on Ansatollah movement of Yemen and said the “Houthis” have Arab-Yemeni temper and behavior. He called on Yemeni Ansarollah to stand against all Yemeni groups and sit at negotiating table. Thus, quoting him, the rights of all Yemeni groups will be attained.

We have also witnessed a U-turn in Saudi positions on Iran within recent weeks. In such a way that Bin Salman in the course of his interview with Saudi TV channel, has said in an unprecedented and conciliatory tone that “ We are seeking good relations with Iran. In cooperation with our partners and allies in the region, we try to sort out our disputes. The two countries have mutual and bilateral interests for advancement and improvement of the region and the world”. The position of Saudi Arabia had a positive reaction from Iran. Regardless of Saudi performance in the region within the past few years which was in line with crisis and tension building, but if the Saudis conciliatory positions will practically be materialized, it brings about good results and effects to the region and a large number of regional problems will be solved.

 

Conclusion

As were mentioned before, qualitative and quantitative achievements of Ansarollah in Yemen, failure of the US maximum pressure against Iran, the US concentration from Saudi Arabia to other issues in the region and at higher level concentration from West Asia to other regions such as China and East Asia, have caused Saudi Arabia to loose her chance to advance her regional strategies. That’s why we have witnessed a conciliatory positions about Ansarollah and Iran taken by Riyadh within the recent days. For sure, if the new positions will lead to interaction with Iran and Yemeni Ansarollah, it will bring about good results to the region. If Saudi Arabia is serious in her interaction with Iran, this could lead to reduce tensions in the region and could marginalize trans-regional destructive players from field, political and economic developments of the region. The players whose  lion- share of interests are met in the persistence of tensions between Tehran and Riyadh. Tensive measures taken by Saudi Arabia in the region, have put unique opportunities at the disposal of Zionist regime within the past few years, if the measures will be stopped through interactions with Iran, thus the channels and fields exploited by Zionists from Saudis’ confronting policies will be closed to a large extent. If the two important regional countries and the world of Islam, i.e. Iran and Saudi Arabia, that have great capacities in economic, political fields will interact and cooperate, the interaction will bring about important and strategic benefits not only for the two but also for the region and the world of Islam.