In an interviewed with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, Diako Hosseini said that it seems the results of the polls are worrying for Mr Trump’s administration, adding that the polls show a gap of 8 to 9 per cent in favour of Mr Biden which has provided a safe distance for him. However, there is still a week to go before the elections, and in the meantime, anything can happen in the American society which is changing day by day and views may change rapidly.
Referring to the importance of the votes of those who do not participate in the elections and may turn to one of the two parties as a result of an unexpected event, he said: If the situation continues as we see today, Mr Biden will probably hold the elections with such safe gap. But there are several factors that could reduce this distance. Of course, if this gap is less than 3 or 4 per cent, it provides enough space for crisis-making, such as allegations of fraud, and this is the tension that can occur in the form of violence and unrest in the American society.
Alleged fraud will lead to the social and political crisis
The international affairs analyst said that if the gap between the two candidates will be decisive, clear and above 7 to 9 per cent, there would be little room for such protest, adding: If the gap is minor, the election may take an unusual turn in various ways. For example, Mr Trump, as has shown signs, can claim that the election was rigged, that a large part of the postal votes was not legal, or fraud had taken place. This could lead the elections to a crisis.
Hosseini continued: If this claim finds a lot of supporters in the American society and turns into a social and political crisis, it can be taken to the Supreme Court where a decision will be made about the soundness of the votes. The Republicans have the upper hand there and it can end in favour of the Republicans, and of course, this will not be the end of the crisis. Because, naturally, a large section of the American society and Democrats will not be satisfied, especially with the accusation that the Supreme Court is pro-Republican and that it has given an unfair vote that could increase the scope of the crisis.
He went on to say that the current state of bipolarity in the American society had taken a definite shape since the beginning of the 21st century, after the 2000s, especially during Mr Bush’s presidency or later and said: It is clear that the policies of each the two parties are divergent on a wide range of social, health, and foreign issues, and unlike previous eras when, if there were any dispute, it would usually be compromised by the leaders of the two parties, today such talent is at a minimum level in the American politics.
Presence of a Form of Stubbornness at the Core of Both Parties
The analyst at the Center for Presidential Strategic Studies considered the decline of the power of compromise as a cause of concern for the Americans, adding: There seems to be some form of stubbornness at the core of both parties today; because Democrats sometimes oppose some policies just because Republicans support them, and vice versa!
Importance of Acquisition of the White House for the Republicans at Any Costs
Stressing that the only thing that matters for the Republicans today is taking possession of the White House, Hosseini said: It does not matter to them whether democracy is weakened, some civil liberties are diminished or a series of American values are violated at the cost of occupying the White House for a second time by the Republicans. Democrats, on the other hand, with such a strong motivation are just trying hard to get the Republicans out of the White House.
Emphasizing the importance of paying attention to the depth of the existing gap in the American society, he said: This could effectively paralyze the US government over making any critical decision as, with great possibility, the Congress will be at the disposal of the spectrum opposing the victorious side of the White House to maintain the balance. Even if among the two-thirds of the members of the Congress there are those who support the White House-based party it will be strong enough to prevent the US government from pursuing various policies.
The international affairs expert cited the absence of a multi-party system as a factor in the failure of forming a coalition government, adding that coalitions would modify the possibility of political tensions turning into retaliation or crippling various policies and would allow people from all walks of life to enter into the government to take share and thereby follow their desired plans.
Bipolar System, One of the Problems of the American Political System
He added: In the United States, such a thing is basically not defined and there has never been a coalition government. This has turned party rivalries in the US into a “zero-sum game” that makes things difficult. In this situation, the possibility of compromise is very low and the motivation to defeat the opponent at any cost is very high; which can be said to be one of the problems of the American political system.
Regarding the escalation of the bipolar situation and the existing tensions in the American society due to Trump’s performance and statements in the elections, Hosseini said: The fact is that not only the “secret government” of the United States but also the Republicans were concerned that Mr Trump was gradually not only breaking the norms that underlie stability and playmaking in that political system but may divide the American society more than what it already is, so that practically neither the Congress nor the government can reform and repair it, resulting in wider instability within the United States.
He added: This concern can be seen today in a part of the moderate spectrum of the Republican Party, which thinks of long-term political and party interests, but because today this enmity, hostility and polarity with the Democrats is very high; as a result, even those people do not much express formal and public concern. The Republican Party itself seems to be fragmented today, but at least up to this day, because of a common enemy, that is to say, the Democrats and their policies, they have been able to keep this disagreement as secret as possible and not bring it up, at least until the end of the elections.
Republicans’ Efforts to Distance from Trump
Referring to the simultaneous holding of the Senate and Presidential elections, Hosseini continued: The Republicans who must gain votes for the Senate are trying to maintain a reasonable distance from Mr Trump, as such that this does not mean that rejecting Trump is synonymous with rejecting the Republicans. Therefore, it seems that they have the same assessment of Trump’s position and that of his group.
Stressing that such a major concern widely exists in the Democratic Party, he said: When Michelle Obama invites people to vote, she advises them to vote as if they are fighting for life and death! This literature is very heavy in the American political society in terms of showing its polarization and endangering its political future as well as political and social stability.