Ali Abdi, in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, said that the official announcement on normalization of diplomatic relations between the UAE and the Zionist regime will definitely have regional and domestic consequences for both the Zionist regime and the UAE. This may accelerate, slow down or twist the trend of the developments.
“Unfortunately, the foundation of this relationship was laid on the basis of military and security relations,” he said, noting that the region was already almost secretive about the relationship and that countries in the region knew it existed. On the one hand, such relations were formed on the basis of the regime’s military diplomacy, known as “Uzi diplomacy”, and on the other hand, security diplomacy between the regime’s security apparatus and the UAE security apparatus, especially their signal communications, under covert Mossad-managed diplomacy and a complex network of senior generals, retired military and senior security officials who shaped the relationship.
The Middle East affairs analyst added: “In the last ten years, the network has managed and directed the regime’s security relations with the UAE under the cover of a number of companies, and now with the official announcement, the level of relations has been raised and the relations are deeper and more serious.” Their offices were already active, for example under the cover of Renewable Energy Agency, which operates in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, and is set to be named as the regime’s first ambassador to the UAE.
Military-Security & Geopolitical Consequences of UAE-Israel Relations
Emphasizing that this action of the UAE will have serious military-security and geopolitical consequences, Abdi explained: In recent years, the Zionist regime has been pursuing a debate called the security-political siege of Iran; just as the regime’s perception that Iran is besieging Israel in Syria and Lebanon, the regime is reciprocally trying to pursue this policy against us.
Referring to the announcement of the official opening of the embassies in Yerevan and Tel Aviv in the past month and the possibility of publicizing relations with Bahrain, Oman and Saudi Arabia in the coming months, he said: The Zionist regime has defined a regional doctrine called “Periphery Doctrine” which had been followed since the 1950s. Now the regime has reconstructed this doctrine. Before the revolution, it sought to besiege Arab countries through non-Arab states in the region; But now, with the transformation of this doctrine, it is trying to besiege Iran through the countries around it, especially the Arabs of the Persian Gulf.
Abdi cited the pervasiveness of the policy of normalization of relations in the region and the attempt to isolate Iran and the member states of the Resistance as other consequences of the beginning of relations between the UAE and the Zionist regime. He said the “southern branch” was defined as the periphery alliance. In practice, the regime is trying to turn the southern branch into its “regional cluster” in the Persian Gulf by establishing embassies in these countries, and organize them for creating a kind of regional order. The relationship with the UAE helps to shape this regional cluster.
The regional affairs expert added that with this action of the UAE, Israel seeks to expand its security strategy from Syria to the Persian Gulf region and use the Persian Gulf Arab countries as a security shield against Iran: in this regard we will have the development of security stations and databases and, and development of the Zionist regime’s secret networks in these countries. In particular, with the high traffic of Iranian nationals to Dubai, the issue of strengthening the spy networks by the regime by having an official embassy and the establishment of one or more intelligence stations will be seriously pursued.
Emphasizing that the regime is trying to increase the dynamism of its regional power and move towards laying the platform for establishing its desired regional order, Abdi said: “With this action, the Zionist regime definitely pursues the issue of rendering ineffective Iran’s asymmetric deterrence around it.”
Referring to Iran’s warnings to the UAE following the announcement of its relationship with the Zionist regime, he added: “The UAE will definitely take these threats seriously.” The country has little strategic depth and is highly vulnerable in terms of oil production and refining centers as well as industrial and economic centers. These cases are definitely observed by the UAE, but on the other hand, it should be borne in mind that in recent years, our country has unfortunately increased its dependence on the UAE, especially after the imposition of currency sanctions and money transfers and the irregular opening of economic and commercial offices in Dubai a link has been established between us and the UAE.
UAE Does Not Want To Play on Israeli Ground
Emphasizing that the UAE is very vulnerable and has not received a serious security threat so far, and therefore its political system is not one to have been tested, he continued: “The Zionist regime’s goal is to make the UAE an ally against Iran, but the UAE because of its high vulnerability does not want, at least openly, to play on this ground.”
UAE Suffers from Delusions of Grandeur and Superiority Complex
Abdi said: “The UAE is a country that does not play a role in itself, and is actually playing in the space provided by the United States and Israel. He added that it is undeniable that the UAE is suffering from the delusions of grandeur and superiority complex and by enhancing its position in the region become one of the main regional players, but the Emirates has serious weaknesses and reservations regarding Iran.”
He added: “Since the UAE is vulnerable and the pressure on this country sometimes are effective, it is not clear if it comes under pressure to act in a bigger puzzle against Iran’s national security, to what extent it can resist and take no action.”
Emphasizing that Trump and Netanyahu have been the main winners of the recent events so far, Abdi said: “Certainly the UAE will not gain much; in fact the country may suffer more in this regard than benefit.” This process was more a concession given to Trump on the threshold of the presidential election in the United States.
He continued: “Regarding the internal problems of Israel and the resolution of the crises of this regime, it must be seen to what extent Netanyahu and his government can solve these crises.” The issue of relations with the Arabs alone cannot have a fundamental impact on the votes of the Zionists in the occupied territories. Rather, it requires Netanyahu to take other steps to reduce social crises, including unemployment, increasing poverty line, serious livelihood problems, and reducing the consequences of the coronavirus.