In an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, Dr. Mahmoud Dehghan said: “In the UK there was a competition between a group of old traditionalists who accepted Britain as it was in the past and a modern group that defines the UK within the European Union and in the international community; the winner of this competition was the traditionalists. Now some sort of populist tendencies have come to the fore.

 

UK Will Be Hit Hard in the Long Run

Noting that the UK will be hit hard in the long run he said the most important issue is safeguarding Britain’s territorial integrity if Scotland and Northern Ireland sought independence. Scotland, as Britain’s premier center of commerce and shipping, gave the biggest vote to UK remaining in EU. The Scottish prime minister has announced that they will again put their independence from Britain to vote in the parliament.

“It seems this is a shot in the dark and may hit the target sooner or later despite efforts by UK to prevent it; But Scotland and Ireland, in the current situation, have virtually raised the flag of independence from UK and if this happens it would mean disintegration of Britain on its own island after 400 years and these are the realities they will face on February 1st,” the university professor added.

Dehghan also cited one of the biggest problems the British people would face as of February 1 would be economic problems caused by London’s departure from the European Union. Explaining that the UK debt to the EU would be one of the most important issues that need to be settled in one way or the other, he said most probably the British pound will be weakened and inflation will go up. A sum of  £64billion is not a small figure the current weakened British economy can handle and the prime minister can repay.

Referring to customs and border restrictions between Britain and the European Union after Brexit, he said, “The Brits can no longer easily travel to Europe, something which will affect the young generation and the traditionalists who will have to cope with a damaged economy.

Another point that has been overlooked amidst the flag waving for an independent UK is the issue of three million Brits off the island of England and two million Europeans residing in the British Isles about whom decisions must be taken. It is true that in the short term it has been announced that they will use all the possibilities for now, but eventually the issues of these five million people are crucial.

Large Capital Outflows from Britain after Brexit

Referring to the decision of major producers and economic activists to withdraw their capital from Britain after Brexit, he said, “Large companies moved their centers to other cities, and that was a good thing for the EU because the union was looking to withdraw big investments from UK and the same thing happened.”

He said that according to statistics, Britain imports about $48 billion a year of food, mostly from the European Union, adding that he considers the issue of customs tariffs and the supply of daily essentials through the EU to be another problem after January 31.

Trump Unwilling to Pay the Price for British Independence

Dehghan added: Many believe that the UK will have a number of problems in the field of goods. In particular, when UK leaves the European Union, it seeks closeness to the United States and pursues the same so-called compliance policy again. But this time the present America is different from the old America. Trump is a businessman who refuses to pay the price of British independence and says Britain should leave the EU first and then negotiate new agreements with the US. It is not like there is a guaranteed customs tariff agreement before Brexit.

Referring to US policies towards its neighbors, including Canada and Mexico, as well as its performance on the NAFTA Treaty, he said, “So, until January 31, these flag waving celebrations will continue and then the main shock will face the people as of February 1 and will create problems.

The university professor said that if the British departure from EU occurs on February 1, not only the story of Brexit is not over but it is just the beginning. “Those who will face difficulties as a result of Brexit will realize the harmful aspects of this exit.”

On the impacts of Brexit on EU, he said: “The United States had an infiltrator in the European Union by the name of Britain, who threw a wrench in the works of the Union every day.” All these years that Britain was in the European Union it sought obstruction and prevented alliances. With the adoption of Brexit the European Union will have a more open hand. Although nationalism has been strengthened in Europe, it is Germany that is gaining more power. Although France is involved in its own internal affairs, it is Germany and France that finally say the last word in the European Union. There are also discussions about the exit of Poland and even Spain, which is not very important for Europe.

He also cited other security and military implications for the security and military impacts on Britain and the European Union, particularly against terrorism and damage to the defense industry and cooperation between the British police and the rest of Europe.

Referring to the economic impacts of Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union on Germany and France, he said, the deleterious consequences of Brexit  are not limited to the British economy. EU member states will also be affected. Brexit may also affect the value of the pound and the euro as two major global currencies.

 

Britain Not America’s Priority

The professor reminding that the British economy will suffer an annual loss of 57 billion pounds and the EU 40 billion euros after London comes out of the European Union, said: “The current government in UK is not a kind of government to deal strongly with America.” Meanwhile, the UK is not a top priority for the US in the current situation and we see Washington is seeking to boost its presence in the Far East and the Middle East.

Pointing out that Britain and France are the only countries in the European Union to have a veto right at the Security Council, Dehghan said, “The 27-nation European Union had a special place because of the two votes at the Security Council but with Britain leaving the EU this power is transferred to France.

 

German, French Power in NATO Boosted

He said after Brexit the power of Germany and France in NATO and the UN Security Council, as well as in international conflicts will go up. Although the US is trying to empower Poland and create balance, the reality is that isolation of Britain in this respect will benefit the other two powers. That is why we saw that Germany and France were not only not displeased by Brexit but were also happy to announce that if there were others who wanted to leave the Union, the EU was ready to go through the formalities; The EU will fine UK so hard that no other EU member would wish to exit the union.

The adoption of Brexit on the first day at the European Union was regarded an earthquake, and everyone was referring to chain withdrawal of member states from the EU but after Europe announced that the UK will have to return all the money it had received in subsidies during this time, these states backed off.

 

 

Increasing Importance of Trans-regional Communications for Powerful European States

Dehghan said ever since the Brexit story  began the Europeans, especially Germany and France had realized that Britain would leave the EU sooner or later, adding that France tried to use its Security Council veto right as a winning card against other states. Germany too tried to cement its ties with other countries, including China and Russia: Germany has so strengthened its relations with China and Russia that it has left no room for French maneuvering.

He added: “With Brexit  it seems emergence of trans-regional communications is becoming increasingly important for powerful European countries to counteract the impact of the single UK vote on Security Council decisions that are likely to have more American tendencies.”