Speaking to the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, Dr. Hadi Taher Khani said that Lebanon has been plagued by tensions that have generally been linked to mismanagement in recent years: Lebanon is involved in rooted tensions provoked by the countries in the region: tensions that have created bipolarity in the current situation. It seems Lebanon has become an arena for conflict between US-led coalition on the one hand and the Resistance Axis on the other.
Failure of US Plan to Involve Hezbollah in Civil Strife
Noting that the US plan to involve the Hezbollah in Lebanese civil strife has failed, he referred to the efforts to form a government following Saad Hariri’s resignation and added: “Lebanon has unique political structures and the process of forming a government has been accompanied by West’s interventions and obstructions of certain US dependent parties. But given Hezbollah’s power, the tension will shift to Hezbollah’s relative superiority, as the level of resistance in Lebanon is much stronger than the American coalition. It should be kept in mind that there are fewer tools in the hands of the other party. This gap results in Hezbollah’s relative superiority.
Diab Should Not Be Considered Hezbollah Candidate
The Middle East affairs expert, referring to Hezbollah leaders’ statements that they do not eye any positions in the government, added: “It is true that Hezbollah’s view that formation of government by Hassan Diab is an opportunity to save Lebanon which has prevented the US from taking advantage of the Lebanese unrests. But Diab insists that he is independent and that no group had imposed anything on him but instead has the support of all groups. Therefore, Diab should not be considered a Hezbollah candidate. He added certain groups may seek to increase pressure on Hezbollah by challenging the new government.”
Taher Khani also spoke about the protests by supporters of Saad Hariri that led to the military intervention and said: Hariri’s supporters have taken to the streets to protest Diab’s designation to form a new government. They are protesting Diab’s candidacy because they argue he does not have the support of the Sunnis, has not been designated by them and therefore does not represent this tribe.
Referring to Hariri’s statement that al-Mustaqbal would never participate in a government Diab intends to form and would not give it a vote of confidence, he continued: “Hariri’s current is the only tool in the hands of the West to counter the current developments in Lebanon. Being in the minority and having little influence on his thinking, Hariri is trying his best to block formation of the government.
“Since Diab has stated that the principle in forming his government is the presence of all parties, including representatives of popular protests, given the divisions between the parties and parliamentary factions, and on top of them, the actions of al-Mustaqbal and Progressive Socialist parliamentary factions and some of the parties affiliated to them will definitely create challenges along the way.
Formation of Future Gov’t with Participation of Hezbollah, Allies
“Field developments in Lebanon indicate that the future government will be formed with the presence of Hezbollah and its allies,” the Middle East affairs analyst said. Given the negative stance of parties that do not intend to take part in the new government, it is natural to see obstacles and disruptions against this government. In addition, we should not ignore the efforts of foreign parties to increase their interventions in the Lebanese government.
“Some protesters have come to the streets because of economic pressures and some groups are being provoked by foreign agents,” he said. The two who are in the minority, will be separated because Lebanese people are patriotic and influenced by the first positive reactions.
Government Formation Will Take at Least a Month
If a government is formed in the first step that will take at least a month, it will have to change again, because the situation in Lebanon is not such that the problems could be resolved immediately,” Taher Khani said.
Government Formation Does Not Mean End of Crisis
At the same time, he did not consider the formation of government a way out of the crisis and said the atmosphere of the Lebanese divisions will emerge in the government in a different way. Lebanon, on the other hand, is in a financial and banking crisis. Lebanon is not a poor country, but the tensions that countries are creating in Lebanon are causing economic problems and are part of the root causes.
Referring to Diab’s plan to form a government, the Middle East affairs expert explained: Diab seeks to have technocrats as the majority in his government but technocrats nominated by political forces so that he could trust them and their political approaches.