India’s Creeping Strategy against Kashmir

2019/11/04 | Note, political, top news

Strategic Council Online: Given the recently announced decisions on Kashmir, several scenarios are foreseeable in the future, each requiring a specific reaction. Nozar Shafiei - Subcontinent Affairs Expert

The Indian government has formally divided Jammu and Kashmir into two separate territories of Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh, which are directly under the control of the federal government in New Delhi despite wide scale protests by Indian residents.

In fact, the recent decision of the Indian government was taken in the light of another action when India stripped Kashmir of the Special Status without observing the significant reactions from within Kashmir, from Pakistan as well as from the Islamic world. So India took the next step, namely the disintegration of Kashmir.

India made this decision based on its estimate of the costs and benefits of the first decision, but as to why the Indian government made such a decision and what its goals are, India seems to have two goals, first of all, suppressing separatist currents in Kashmir and secondly, to tighten the government’s grip over the region. Through this action part of Kashmir has effectively been dissolved into India. That is to say, the Indian government has now dissolved Ladakh, which is predominantly Hindu and Buddhist, within the land of India, a land whose people are religiously and racially part of the majority of the Indian population.

From this point of view, India will only be concerned with the Muslim-dominated Kashmir with Srinagar playing a central role. That is, if India had previously been concerned about the whole of Kashmir, it now becomes its second or third concern since the area of Ladakh is less than Kashmir Valley.

As a result, India has adopted a creeping policy towards Kashmir and is moving step by step to advance it.

In other words, Kashmir was once partitioned between India and Pakistan, and today the part under Indian control has been re-divided. This would allow India to better control the Kashmir Valley, and secondly, it has limited the Kashmir soil to the Kashmir Valley which if it wanted to become independent would cover a wide area.

Ultimately, if one day an independent Kashmir is supposed to be formed, it will only include the Kashmir Valley, which basically this “smaller independent Kashmir” has been one of the scenarios for resolving the Kashmir crisis. Earlier, the scenario was to create a “smaller, independent Kashmir”, which was the Kashmir Valley.

If this scenario is realized the Pakistan-controlled part of the country will remain part of Pakistan and the Indian-controlled part, including Jammu and Ladakh, will join India and the Kashmir Valley will become an independent Kashmir. With this division, India’s control over Kashmir will be consolidated.

India, of course, is not planning to implement this scenario at this time, as the Indians regard Kashmir an integral part of India and reject any scenario leading to the separation of all or part of Kashmir.

But now, with these divisions and the creation of a “smaller and independent Kashmir”, India is looking to provide a favorable ground so that if one day there is talk about separation of Kashmir it would only cover this part.

Concerning future scenarios, given the abolition of Kashmir’s autonomy and disintegration by India and the relative silence of the Muslim world, Pakistan and the independent circles in Kashmir several scenarios are foreseeable each requiring its own response. First, these events are likely to be a series of coordinated acts in the sense that the United States may have entered the field to give part of Kashmir, including Jammu and Ladakh to India and then force New Delhi to recognize the independence of the Kashmir Valley.

The second scenario is that India has really become so powerful that neither the people of Kashmir nor the Pakistani government were capable of confronting Delhi and that it will do all it likes to do.

The third scenario is to imagine the silence towards India’s actions is like ‘calm before the storm,’ and that this ‘fire under the ashes’ will eventually be activated and this activation could be in the form of inter-state clashes between India and Pakistan or internal clashes between Kashmiris and the Indians with the tacit support of Pakistan.

0 Comments

Submit a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

LATEST CONTENT

Zionist Regime’s Post-War Map for Gaza

Strategic Council Online – Interview: An expert on Middle East issues said: After nearly 150 days have passed since the attacks of Israeli planes on Gaza and the unprecedented genocide in this city, regional and international efforts to end the Gaza crisis have intensified.

Reasons for Inaction & Inefficiency of Intl Organizations in Providing Aid to Gaza

Strategic Council Online: An expert on regional issues said: With the start of the Gaza war, many major powers and international organizations not only did not take honest action to support the defenseless Palestinian people, but instead, with their support for the actions of the Zionist regime, they caused their crimes to increase over the past five months.

France and the Two-State Solution in Occupied Territories

Strategic Council Online – Interview: An expert on regional issues said: The announcement of France’s agreement with the formation of two states in the Occupied Territories is a measure to raise the international image of France and reduce domestic pressure on the Macron government for inaction against the Israeli crimes in Gaza.

The Prospect of US Military Withdrawal from Iraq

Strategic Council Online – Opinion: Although most currents, politicians and even ordinary people in Iraq call for withdrawal of American military forces from their country, there are sometimes differences of opinion regarding the time of this withdrawal. On the one hand, Mohammad Shia al-Sudani, the Prime Minister of Iraq, is very serious in demanding the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq. Still, he wants to achieve this goal through “negotiation and political deal”. On the other hand, the Iraqi Resistance groups want the Americans to leave this country as soon as possible. The American side is also talking about a military withdrawal from Iraq in the next three years.

Russia’s Multifaceted Relations with Neighbors

Strategic Council Online – Interview: An international affairs expert said: After Russia attacked Ukraine two years ago, the country’s relations with some of its European neighbors were severely disturbed in such a way that a clear future cannot be imagined for it.

Solution to Get Out of FATF Blacklist and Get Rid of Its Heavy Costs?

Strategic Council Online – Opinion: The Financial Action Task Force, FATF, announced on Friday, February 23, that the name of the Islamic Republic of Iran remains on the “blacklist” of this international organization. A decision that was not unexpected for the authorities of our country. According to the Governor of the Central Bank of Iran, one day before the release of the FATF statement, due to the current sanctions, Iran is looking for its own FATF, as it uses other tools instead of SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications). On this basis, it seems that while the United Arab Emirates and Lebanon were removed from the “Grey List” of FATF in the previous reviews in June 2024, the Islamic Republic of Iran is not trying to be exempted from the blacklist. But what kind of organization is FATF, and why are some in Iran against joining it? And what is the way out of this situation?

Loading

Últimas publicaciones

Zionist Regime’s Post-War Map for Gaza

Strategic Council Online – Interview: An expert on Middle East issues said: After nearly 150 days have passed since the attacks of Israeli planes on Gaza and the unprecedented genocide in this city, regional and international efforts to end the Gaza crisis have intensified.

Reasons for Inaction & Inefficiency of Intl Organizations in Providing Aid to Gaza

Strategic Council Online: An expert on regional issues said: With the start of the Gaza war, many major powers and international organizations not only did not take honest action to support the defenseless Palestinian people, but instead, with their support for the actions of the Zionist regime, they caused their crimes to increase over the past five months.

France and the Two-State Solution in Occupied Territories

Strategic Council Online – Interview: An expert on regional issues said: The announcement of France’s agreement with the formation of two states in the Occupied Territories is a measure to raise the international image of France and reduce domestic pressure on the Macron government for inaction against the Israeli crimes in Gaza.

The Prospect of US Military Withdrawal from Iraq

Strategic Council Online – Opinion: Although most currents, politicians and even ordinary people in Iraq call for withdrawal of American military forces from their country, there are sometimes differences of opinion regarding the time of this withdrawal. On the one hand, Mohammad Shia al-Sudani, the Prime Minister of Iraq, is very serious in demanding the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq. Still, he wants to achieve this goal through “negotiation and political deal”. On the other hand, the Iraqi Resistance groups want the Americans to leave this country as soon as possible. The American side is also talking about a military withdrawal from Iraq in the next three years.

Russia’s Multifaceted Relations with Neighbors

Strategic Council Online – Interview: An international affairs expert said: After Russia attacked Ukraine two years ago, the country’s relations with some of its European neighbors were severely disturbed in such a way that a clear future cannot be imagined for it.

Solution to Get Out of FATF Blacklist and Get Rid of Its Heavy Costs?

Strategic Council Online – Opinion: The Financial Action Task Force, FATF, announced on Friday, February 23, that the name of the Islamic Republic of Iran remains on the “blacklist” of this international organization. A decision that was not unexpected for the authorities of our country. According to the Governor of the Central Bank of Iran, one day before the release of the FATF statement, due to the current sanctions, Iran is looking for its own FATF, as it uses other tools instead of SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications). On this basis, it seems that while the United Arab Emirates and Lebanon were removed from the “Grey List” of FATF in the previous reviews in June 2024, the Islamic Republic of Iran is not trying to be exempted from the blacklist. But what kind of organization is FATF, and why are some in Iran against joining it? And what is the way out of this situation?

Loading