A Glance at Turkish Ceasefire Statement and Its Implications

2019/10/30 | Note, political, top news

Strategic Council Online: A meeting between US delegation led by Vice President Mike Pence and Turkish officials in Ankara ended with the announcement of a 120-hour ceasefire in northern Syria. Following the talks, a joint 13-article statement was issued between Turkey and the United States, which, in addition to sparking harsh criticism by Trump's opponents to its clauses, the Syrian presidential adviser described it "vague." Hamideh Safamanesh - International Relations Researcher

The statement emphasizes that the US and Turkey reaffirm their relationship as fellow members of NATO and the US understands Turkey’s legitimate security concerns on Turkey’s southern border.

The statement added that Turkey and the United States are committed to D-ISIS/DAESH activities in northeast Syria. This will include coordination on detention facilities and internally displaced persons from formerly ISIS/DAESH-controlled areas, as appropriate.

The Turkish side expressed its commitment to ensure safety and well-being of residents of all population centers in the safe zone controlled by the Turkish Forces (safe zone) and reiterated that maximum care will be exercised in order not to cause harm to civilians and civilian infrastructure.

The safe zone will be primarily enforced by the Turkish Armed Forces and the two sides will increase their cooperation in all dimensions of its implementation.

The Turkish side will pause Operation Peace Spring in order to allow the withdrawal of YPG from the safe zone within 120 hours. Operation Peace Spring will be halted upon completion of this withdrawal.

Once Operation Peace Spring is paused, the US agrees not to pursue further imposition of sanctions under the Executive Order of October 14, 2019, Blocking Property and Suspending Entry of Certain Persons Contributing to the Situation in Syria, and will work and consult with Congress, as appropriate, to underline the progress being undertaken to achieve peace and security in Syria, in accordance with UNSCR 2254. Once Operation Peace Spring is halted as per paragraph 11 the current sanctions under the aforementioned Executive Order shall be lifted.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusolgu said, “We are suspending the operation, not halting it … We can halt the operation only after [Kurdish militants] withdraw from the region completely.” He added, “This is not a cease-fire. A cease-fire is done between two legitimate parties.”

The statements follow the introduction of symbolic sanctions from Donald Trump Oct. 14 and a bipartisan effort in the US Congress to leverage more severe sanctions on Turkey to bring about a cease-fire.

“Ankara has agreed with the American side on the removal of the Kurds’ heavy weapons and the disablement of their fortifications and has made no commitments to Ain al-Arab (Kobani),” he said. “We will be monitoring the withdrawal of heavy weapons,” he noted, adding that “regarding Manjib and some other areas, we will negotiate with Russia.” He said that the security zone will be controlled by the Turkish Armed Forces.

Following the ceasefire announcement, the US president told reporters referring to the suspension of Turkish sanctions, “This agreement is what Turkey has always wanted.”

President Trump showered Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan with praise.

The president declared the deal an “amazing outcome” even as many questions remain about the terms and Ankara’s commitment to a cease-fire. Trump repeatedly credited Erdoğan, hailing the strong-arm president as a “hell of a leader.”

“He’s a strong man, and he did the right thing and I really appreciate it, and I will appreciate it in the future.”

Erdogan told reporters in Istanbul that the safe zone would be 32 km deep, and run 440 km from the very west to the east.

Erdogan also outlined the scope of the agreement, stressing that the “safe zone” would reach the Iraqi border to the east, saying that the safe zone in Syria would be 32 kilometers across the border and would reach the Iraqi border from the east. .

Erdogan, however, pointing out that there are still differences between the United States and Turkey over the depth of the safe zone north of Syria, added: “The area we will declare as a safe zone, according to Trump, is 22 kilometers but we want 32 kilometers … Our missions will continue, and we are in constant contact with the Americans.” He said he will also meet with Vladimir Putin about the northern region of Syria.

Amnesty International said it had compiled “damning evidence” of crimes committed by Turkish forces and Syrian militias backed by Ankara. Amnesty claimed they displayed “a shameful disregard for civilian life, including through summary killings and unlawful attacks that have killed and injured civilians”.

 

On the other side of the conflict, however, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s political and media adviser, Bouthaina Shaaban, emphasized that the cease-fire reached between Turkey and the United States in northern Syria is “vague.” Shaaban said it is not yet clear about the prospects of the cease-fire agreement.

Shaaban said there is nothing called a “safe zone” as it is an occupation of Syrian territory by Turkey. “Erdogan is an occupier of our land and he is an aggressor against our country,” she said.

“We deal with any illegitimate foreign presence on our country as an occupation,” the Syrian official added.

Asked whether Russia is mediating a new relation between Syria and Turkey which has been a staunch supporter of the Syrian rebels, Shaaban ruled out such a possibility, saying “there is no Russian mediation between the Syrian government and Turkey.”

Meanwhile, Shaaban said the coordination between the Syrian government and its allies of Russia and Iran is “ongoing on a daily basis and there is complete trust between us.”

Commenting on Turkey’s role in the Astana Process, she said: “The Syrian Foreign Ministry insists that what Erdogan is doing in Syria today and since the beginning of the crisis has caused him not to be well-qualified for the Astana Process.”

However, some analysts expect a meeting between Russian and Turkish presidents in Russia on October 22 to provide an opportunity for Turkey and Syria to negotiate and revive the Adana Treaty between the two countries. The ceasefire, held for a limited period of 120 hours, ends on Oct. 22, the same day that Russian President Vladimir Putin is due to meet with Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

When US forces withdrew from northern Syria, the Russian military deployed patrols around the strategic points of the region, and now that the Russian negotiating table is set up, the Kremlin is seeking to play such a role on behalf of both of its allies in the region: To act as a mediator between Damascus and Ankara.

It is no surprise for America’s old politicians to give such a position to Russia. While Trump defended his decision to withdraw US troops from northern Syria as a “strategically brilliant” move, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell described the decision in Syria as “a strategic nightmare” in an op-ed for The Washington Post. “The withdrawal of US troops from Syria is a grave strategic mistake.”

While his piece did not explicitly lay blame at Trump’s feet — or even mention his name — it warned that the Trump administration’s sudden foreign policy shift “will leave the American people and homeland less safe, embolden our enemies, and weaken important alliances.”

Euronews quoted the French President Emmanuel Macron as announcing a “joint initiative” with Angela Merkel and Boris Johnson to meet “soon” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Turkey’s offensive in northeastern Syria.

 

After a European summit in Brussels, the French president said he planned with the German Chancellor and the British Prime Minister to “see” in “the next few weeks” the Turkish president, “probably in London”.

Macron was probably referring to the NATO summit in London on December 3 and 4. It seems that in the conflict between Turkey and the Kurds in northern Syria, the US role has been weakened after troop withdrawal and betrayal of the Kurds, and Europe wants to play a role.

 

Macron has said that Turkey’s offensive in northern Syria was “madness” and criticized the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) for failing to prevent the conflict.

“It weakens our credibility in finding partners on the ground who will be by our side and who think they will be protected in the long term. So that raises questions about how NATO functions.”

Earlier, European Council President Donald Tusk described Turkey’s move as a “so-called ceasefire.”

“It’s not a ceasefire it’s a demand of capitulation of the Kurds,” he said.

EU Council President Donald Tusk said the halt of Turkish hostilities is not a genuine cease-fire and called on Ankara to immediately stop military operations in Syria.

Both men were speaking at the closing of the European summit in Brussels.

In addition, the details of the ceasefire agreement between Turkey and the Kurds in northern Syria and the White House’s performance in that regard have drawn much criticism in recent days. The US government’s behavior in connection with the Turkish invasion of northern Syria clearly shows that the United States has no long-term perspective on Syria and its developments. Instability in US foreign policy on Syria has imposed heavy costs on stability and tranquility in the country.

While relying on such forceful approaches, Trump gave the green light to Turkey in a hasty and unexpected way to authorize a military strike on Syria. By ignoring the rights of Syrian citizens and its national sovereignty, it created political trends to stabilize and establish security in the country.

News of the cease-fire was met with skepticism, and in some cases outright criticism, on Capitol Hill.

Two top Democrats in Congress bashed a five-day truce that the US brokered with Turkey to halt violence on the Syrian border.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said the agreement was a “sham ceasefire” that showed that US President Donald Trump is “flailing.”

Pelosi and Schumer said Turkey had surrendered nothing while Trump had given Erdogan “everything.”

They said the deal damages American credibility and leaves thousands of Islamic State prisoners in the hands of Turkey and Syria’s government, which they said represents a security threat to the US.

Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) ripped the administration in a floor speech, adding that the cease-fire was “far from a victory.”

He said Trump’s decision to abandon Kurdish allies in Syria “will stand as a bloodstain in the annals of American history.”

The announcement of Erdogan’s and Putin’s upcoming visit appears to have prompted White House officials to play a quick, albeit ambiguous, role in setting up a ceasefire agreement, prompting Russian ceasefire and influence over northern Syria. ؛ An agreement that will add to the complexity of the conflict-ridden northern Syria. While the Syrian military has been present in areas such as Qamishli, Hasaka and parts of Raqqa, the official presence of Turkish troops in the “security zone” that Turkey seeks to raise is likely to escalate and intensify widespread military and tensions in the region.

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