Despite the defeat of ISIS in Iraq and Syria, this shattered terrorist group has been able to move to Afghanistan with the help of certain countries. Today, ISIS has penetrated mainly the northern parts of Afghanistan such as Faryab and some southern areas. The presence of ISIS is a threat to Iran, China and Russia, and to Central Asia in general, as there are many people in the Muslim-populated areas of China and Russia who have a tendency to join ISIS, and now if ISIS can take power in Afghanistan and not be suppressed this region will face serious insecurity. Of course, the countries in the region themselves are well aware of this danger.

There are a few points to be made about the presence of ISIS in Afghanistan: first, given the disorderly situation of Afghanistan’s domestic politics, there is an opportunity for ISIS to show off. Because the Taliban has been able to gain the upper hand militarily and politically over the past few months, focusing more on authority and seizing power and negotiating with the United States, leading to a vacuum and opportunity for ISIS presence.

On the other hand, some powerful countries like America, when they look at Afghanistan’s neighbours realize that some of its neighbours such as Uzbekistan or Tajikistan can be a gateway for ISIS to reach Russian border and penetrate the Russian Muslim regions. Meantime, the ISIS presence in Afghanistan could also be a threat to Iran and China.

There is no doubt that countries such as the United States have helped ISIS strengthen its position in Afghanistan through immigration. At the same time, many ISIS forces and commanders went to Iraq and Syria from Central Asia and southern Russia (the Muslim populated areas in the region). Today ISIS survivors want to establish command in northern Afghanistan to make it easier for their supporters to join the group.

As for the future of ISIS in Afghanistan, it should be noted that the more disorder and insecurity in Afghanistan, the more ISIS can recover and develop. In the meantime, some countries will also help bring ISIS to power in Afghanistan, because the presence of ISIS will benefit certain countries, and the US and some Arab countries are helping groups such as ISIS to survive. Unrest in Afghanistan and eastern Iran will naturally endanger the security of Central Asia, and the danger of disrupting security in the region is not a major issue for some Arab countries.

ISIS is currently seen as an important factor or parameter in the future of Afghanistan, and even if the Taliban make peace with the central government and if the US and the Taliban reach an agreement, it will take a long time to suppress ISIS.

It should be borne in mind that ISIS, like the Taliban, is not an introverted force that looks solely into Afghanistan. Therefore, it will be difficult to reach an agreement with ISIS with the goals pursued by this terrorist group. Meanwhile, the Kabul government and no other international force can come to an agreement with ISIS due to its line of thinking. ISIS seeks to establish a state in the region and has previously attempted to form a state in Iraq and Syria under the name of the Levant but failed. In fact, ISIS now wants to establish a state called Khorasan or Great Khorasan in eastern Iran with the US backing.

Meanwhile, Afghan officials have not yet taken ISIS presence in their country seriously. When ISIS began to arrive in Afghanistan, some political officials warned senior and mid-level Afghan officials that ISIS was strengthening and infiltrating the country and even named areas where ISIS was present, but Afghan officials always insisted to emphatically say they saw no signs of ISIS presence in Afghanistan.