He explained that the Zionist regime has four options to come out of this situation: “In the first case, a general coalition government could be formed, one of the two parties that have won more seats could form a coalition government or share the position of the prime minister for a certain period of time, set the cabinet members on mutually agreed terms, and then enter the smaller parties in the cabinet.”
Commenting on the second possible option the diplomat said Netanyahu is likely to form a coalition with smaller parties with Lieberman, the leader of “Our Home Israel”(right wing nationalist party), which won about 10 seats to get 61 seats, which of course is a difficult task to accomplish. Lieberman was in Netanyahu’s cabinet, and because of personal disagreements his departure led to the collapse of Netanyahu’s cabinet in the previous round.
The third situation, he said, is for Lieberman and ‘Our Home Israel’ Party form a coalition with Netanyahu’s rival, Benny Gants, and form a not-so-strong government through coalition with smaller parties.
The fourth option considered by the international affairs analyst is to come to no agreement and hold new elections.
“Given the situation, the Zionist regime’s cabinet appears to have suffered a meltdown and is unlikely to come out of the impasse easily,” Mohebali said.
At the same time, he said: “Of course one factor that can help ease the crisis to some extent is an external crisis the regime is facing. This external crisis would help form a general coalition government as favored by Netanyahu to get him out of the crisis and delay his trial and imprisonment for his corruption case.”
“There is another possibility that the Americans will intervene in this matter,” the former Middle East Affairs Director General added. In any case, they may need a stable Israel under the current conditions, as they intend to form an alliance with Arabs and Israel against Iran. Thus, the intervention of the Trump administration may be effective in this regard, he noted.
So the general coalition option is more likely given the region’s conditions and the Americans’ need and Netanyahu’s status which seeks to stabilize himself at least for another term to evade the danger that threatens him. This option has precedence in the Zionist regime, and it has happened before, when a unity government was formed and premiership was divided between the two major winners on a rotating basis.
The strategic analyst said: “After that, the possibility of a coalition between Our Home Israel Party and the Blue and White Party led by Netanyahu’s rival Gantz is higher. The fourth option, namely new election, is a very difficult task given that two early elections have been held in Israel. Although the public opinion would not accept this option, it is still a possibility. So Netanyahu’s alliance with Lieberman is less likely due to their personal differences. We have to see which options will occur depending on the circumstances.”
“If they decide that elections should be held, the maximum time they have is by the end of this year unless they agree to an interim government,” he said. “They have juridical and legal solutions to keep the situation going. Or, paying attention to the situation in the Middle East and to the critical and security conditions may help the Americans find it easier to form a coalition government between a two parties with the majority votes until next year to see how and where the US election is going. If the Democrats win the race the moderates would become more powerful in Israel and may call for re-election, but if Trump is reelected it would naturally be a boost for Netanyahu, the hardliners and the Likud Party.
“There is considerable time till the US elections, and it must be emphasized that never in the history of US-Israel ties the relationship between the two governments has been so intimate,” said the former Director General of the IRI Foreign Ministry commenting on the connection between the Zionist regime election and the upcoming US presidential election.
Of course, he said, the two have always maintained strategic relations but as Trump served as president Israel succeeded in materialization of its long-term demands such as the transfer of the US Embassy and the recognition of Quds (Jerusalem) as the capital of Israel by the United States; annexing the Golan Heights and its acceptance by the US and the issue of expanding settlements in the West Bank – all of which had previously been either rejected by US governments or treated with caution. So Trump is interested in Netanyahu’s stay in power, and the Zionist lobby will certainly work to make this happen, and on the other hand, the Jewish lobby within the US is interested in Trump’s reelection.
“Both of these are difficult options,” he said. In the Zionist regime, the possibility of Netanyahu remaining as a powerful prime minister is almost out of question. In the United States, Trump is still the first choice for presidency among the public opinion, given the inadequate standing of Democratic candidates but there is still time for change and new developments can affect both the domestic situation of the US and Israel.
“The events in the Middle East are unpredictable and developments in this region are related to both US domestic affairs and Israeli internal affairs,” said Mohebali. Therefore, one should not jump into conclusion and anticipation and these matters should be treated with caution.
“If we look at the issues from the perspective of Iran’s national interests, the defeat of the hardliners in the Zionist regime would probably be more in the interest of the Palestinians and may also serve Tehran’s interests. This would even weaken the coalition that was supposed to be formed between the US, Israel and the Arabs. It all depends on the circumstances and events that may occur. However, a state of security and crisis in the Middle East is in the interest of the Zionist regime and American hardliners. When the region is calm, the two would have trouble, and naturally Iran’s interests are in having calm and peace in the region.”