Referring to the recent visit of the German Chancellor to China, Dr. Mahmoud Dehghan Tazarjani said the trip shows an association by the two economic superpowers against the dominant economic superpower, namely the US. He added: About 35 percent of the world’s GNP is in the US possession. The figure for China is close to that of the United States.  According to some accounts in another year (2020), China’s GNP will surpass that of the United States and Beijing will become the world’s top economic superpower.

He said Germany is the economic backbone behind the euro, and euro owes its survival to the economic strength of Germany because there is an economic hub in Europe with Germany playing the central role. The European Central Bank as well as EU’s economic centers are based in Germany.

In relation with the crises in Greece as well as Italy and even France, it was Germany which saved them by extending financial support and prevented the collapse of the EU.

Accusing Trump of “disrupting the world order and the human achievements of nearly a century of economic cooperation,” the international relations analyst said the US president, on the one hand, waged a trade war with China and, on the other hand, is bluntly welcoming the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union and even encourages other EU states to follow suit. These policies show that Trump has completely targeted these two powers. It is natural that in such conditions China and Germany will get closer. The proximity of the economic potential of Germany and China sounds the alarm against the US.

He added: “Many analysts believe that the backdrop of what Mr. Trump is doing in the political field and through his games in the Middle East,  Iran sanctions, oil pipeline ban and other issues are long-term US plans to bring Germany and China to their knees as the world’s two largest economies because other countries are already under Washington’s domination.”

Dehghan noted: “I believe the visit apparently portrays a picture of limited economic and political cooperation between the two countries, nonetheless, the event reveals that behind the scene, the world’s two big economic powers with their economic potential have declared an unannounced war against US President Donald Trump’s trade war. The negotiations held and the agreements reached between Berlin and Beijing too point to this very point.”

Referring to the pressures exerted on Germany by certain countries to raise the human rights issue and the unrest in Hong Kong during Merkel’s China visit, the analyst noted: “Merkel has to deal with these issues as far as German and European Union policies are concerned. I do not believe that this was the driving force behind Merkel’s trip to China. Naturally the trip was based on the need for two world powers to hold negotiations, but since these negotiations coincided with provocations by the United States and certain European countries such as Britain in Hong Kong, it was natural for the Chinese government to impose some restrictions and take certain preventive measures. These things are made public in the media, but behind the scene, the economic potentials of the two countries are at the heart of the negotiations.”

Noting that Europe is currently facing a severe crisis and Britain’s exit from the EU with or without a deal will put UK at the risk of disintegration, he said:” Brexit is the biggest foreign crisis after World War II and the biggest internal crisis in the UK over the last two hundred years; it is the first time Britain has been subjected to breakup. In case of a no-deal exit from EU, the issues of separation of Ireland, Scotland, Wales and Gibraltar are no small matters. Insecurity in Britain will quickly spread to major European countries.

The analyst said ever since the UK joined the EU it has acted like a naughty boy and done nothing except for blackmailing and making excuses. He said:  “On the one hand, the European Union is glad to get rid of this naughty boy. On the other hand, the EU is punishing the UK so badly in the process of withdrawal that other member states would not dare to talk about an exit. The United States was also preparing the ground for Poland and some other states to withdraw from the EU after Brexit and thus pave the way for EU breakup. Under such circumstances, Merkel will have to maintain her position as an economic power, and continue Europe’s reliance on Germany at times of crisis. Most importantly Germany is expected to counter Washington’s severe threats and the costs it incurs on EU, like NATO costs, and so on.

“Given these issues, Germany’s position is tougher than China’s, because China is a united country with a strong economy and a unified management, and like a centralized system from above, whatever their leader says, it comes into play immediately. But this is not the case in Germany and the European Union. Far right parties in Germany and the European Union are gaining power and the EU’s gains over years may be sacrificed due to internal and external stimuli. The situation is very sensitive, and overall, under such sensitive conditions, the US threats have brought the two countries closer together.”

On the impact of China-Germany relations on the challenges of Beijing and Washington, Dehghan said, “In America, the administration in the sense of government does not decide on many of the fundamental issues. But the establishment meaning the ruling system makes the decisions. What we call the political structure makes the decisions and formulates long-term plans. After George W. Bush’s two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the tremendous damage inflicted on the US (according to the latest statistics it is more than the $7 trillion). Trump says the establishment had been seeking a smooth and peaceful pullout from these two countries to save some money. As you can see, Afghanistan was handed over to the Taliban after 19 years.

The analyst continued: “It was this structure that wanted to bring Trump to power so that he would abuse other countries and sell weapons and creating similar crises like this to end the severe trade deficit that has reached an unbearable level in the United States, but Trump’s actions result in depreciation of the US dollar, and many countries in the world are putting the dollar aside as a backing currency in economic transactions, as we have seen in Russia, China, Iran and some other countries.

“These sound the alarm for the United States, and there are several possibilities for the future of these countries. One possibility is that, just as in 2001, when Americans saw that they could not cope with Europe and other emerging powers, they launched the 9/11 strikes and dragged the game from the economic field to the military field with the latter being where they have power. This may happen again. But it is unlikely until next year’s election. But it is possible that after the 2020 election there will be a major war in one of the global constituencies, either in the Middle East or in India and China in the case of North Korean debate or even in Latin America in the case of Venezuela.

Describing a second possible scenario, Dehghan said, “The second possibility is that there will be changes in America in terms of the president in which case we should see other changes. However, in order to secure his foreign exchange resources, Trump has abrogated, questioned or withdrawn unilaterally from almost all political, military, and human achievements since 1945. These are no small issues within an America that considers itself to be the founder of the United Nations and later the United Nations Organization, and could trigger the outbreak of great developments in 2020 in the United States and later in the entire world.