Morteza Makki, referring to Boris Johnson’s harsh tone against the European Union and provocation of these countries, noted: “This political pressure is a tool for the UK to achieve its goal and some EU political authorities have reacted to this populist and bullying tone reacted with the same tool.
A German official said the European Union and Germany would not give in to these political pressures. Johnson has used this harsh tone against the European Union, and has so far failed to make the EU more flexible in its positions and revise the Brexit Deal.
On the reasons for the British Prime Minister to suspend the Parliament the strategic affairs expert said: “Boris Johnson who took over as the prime minister is a supporter of the hardline Conservatives in the Conservative Party demanding UK exit from EU with or without a deal. After Theresa May failed to provide the necessary conditions to leave the EU after three years when all the scenarios and efforts of Theresa May failed, the most likely scenario that would have been possible to exit the EU was a no deal exit as the EU was in no way willing to revise the agreement it had concluded with Theresa May.
That is why all the debate in the political and media circles was that Boris Johnson had no choice but to leave the EU without a deal, but Johnson faced some restrictions in doing so.
Explaining these restrictions, the European expert said: “One is that the current opposing a no-deal exit is still strong within the UK without the EU’s consent, and Johnson is in a shaky situation in the House of Commons. He cannot get the support needed to make an exit with or without a deal in the absence of Parliament. For the same reason, he has decided to close or suspend the House of Commons. In the UK it has been such an unprecedented event for a British Prime Minister to realize one of the most complex political developments through the parliament shutdown or suspension.”
Opposition parties are also seeking to block Johnson’s move by giving his administration a no-confidence vote but the closure of the House of Representatives till October 14 has neutralized this attempt by the opposition parties.
It made it very difficult for the opposition parties to reach an agreement to avoid a unilateral exit from the European Union after October 14, two weeks ahead of Britain’s departure from the European Union.
Makki noted: “In the current situation, Britain is in a very difficult and complex political situation, and with the closure of the House of Commons until October 14, all the currents opposed to no-deal exit will be in a state of desperation.”
Speaking about the British Prime Minister’s attempt to leave the EU without a deal despite warnings against negative political and economic implications, they said they do not think so and believe that Britain within the European Union is facing serious restrictions and that its national sovereignty is in fact in question. They believe that they can overcome the political and economic consequences of leaving the EU in the medium term.
Makki also added that opposing currents believe that leaving the European Union without a deal in addition to economic consequences that could cause economic recession in Britain it could also have political consequences and provide grounds for the separation of Scotland and Northern Ireland from Britain, because in 2016 the majority of the people in the two regions wanted to stay in the European Union and have now announced that a no-deal exit would force them to make a second attempt for holding an independence referendum.
He added: “All of these variables have created a complex political situation in the UK and even if exit without agreement is possible, Britain will still be involved in the consequences of leaving the European Union for years.”
Referring to Boris Johnson’s remarks that in case of a no-deal withdrawal he would not pay the 39 billion euros promised by Theresa May to be paid to EU in exit toll within the framework of the agreement with the European Union. He said: “In case of a no-deal exit the money will certainly not be paid to the EU. It must also be noted that the European Union does not want Britain to have an easy exit from the European Union because an easy exit could spill over to other EU members.
If exit from EU has heavy political and economic consequences it will certainly make other opposition currents in the EU that want to break away from the Union to have second thoughts about their separation from the EU. It is true that a no-deal withdrawal will have consequences for the UK but there are implications for the EU as well. For the EU it will also have consequences for the short-term economic recession and in the medium to long terms may pave the way for strengthening separatist tendencies in other EU regions such as the Basque, Catalonia or separation and division of Belgium.
Commenting on the impact of hard Brexit on the European states, he said: “Some EU countries like Denmark have a quarter of their trade with the UK and the UK imports some of the food and agricultural products it needs from EU members,” he said. If Britain leaves the European Union without a deal, as it faces a supply crisis and could face shortages in the short term, it will also cause problems for countries that export these agricultural and food products to the UK. These countries could suffer losses in export of foodstuff that are usually short-lived and have little storage capacity, and in the short term the countries of the union will face stagnation.”
The European affairs expert on the measures the opposition can take against Johnson and his hardline campaign said: “The event taking place in the UK is unprecedented and we cannot go back to predicting future developments until we see how he is confronted in these situations. The UK also does not have a written constitution to analyze what opportunities the opposition parties now have to oppose Johnson. It’s really hard to say what the opposition will do.
He added: “The kind of behavior, reactions and stances the opposition parties have adopted show that they do not have much of a winning hand to stop Boris Johnson, unless after the realization of no-deal exit, they prepare the ground for his ouster. If withdrawal is possible without an agreement, Johnson himself will call early elections, because if he does not, the only option the opposition has is to oppose Johnson’s actions and set the stage for talks with the European Union to reduce the implications of a no-deal exit. So the possibility of early elections after October 31 is not out of the question.
Makki said: “Given the divisions and polarities in British society, even predicting the upcoming British elections is very difficult, as the Labor Party as the largest opposition party now has less votes than the Conservative party. The Conservative Party also has little votes and cannot form a majority. The approximation of Britain’s political and economic conditions will continue to be in dire straits even after leaving the EU without agreement.
Given the current situation, he considered a no-deal exit from EU by the UK the most likely option. He added: “It seems unlikely for the EU to exercise leniency more than this. As Jeane-Claude Juncker, the European Commission president has announced the EU is preparing for a no-deal exit of UK from the EU in order to handle the implications of the Brexit with the minimum costs. The most likely scenario now is a no-deal exit as no other scenarios appear to be possible during the short time left.