Mahmoud Shouri – Deputy of the Iran and Eurasia Institute (IRAS)
The goal of the Western powers in intensifying sanctions is not to force Russia to negotiate; instead, they know they have entered an endless dispute with Russia and therefore must advance their goals through the gradual weakening of Moscow. Of course, Russia also has its own tools to counter the sanctions. Thus, what might bring Russia to the negotiating table is not more threats and pressure, but rather concessions that might prompt Moscow to sit at the table. Even within that framework, the Russians will not provide many concessions; instead, they will mostly receive concessions to avoid further escalation of the war. Meaning, the Westerners are forced to give concessions to prevent Russia from escalating the war, not to make Russia retreat from its positions.

However, Moscow’s reaction to the intensification of sanctions and the potential seizure of its assets in Europe for Ukraine’s benefit is also significant and worthy of examination. Russian officials, regarding the recent sanctions imposed by Europe and America, or those they had imposed in the past, announced that such actions will only escalate tensions and have no effect on Russia’s policies. Furthermore, a large part of these sanctions is more of Europe and America’s efforts to show that they still have tools to use in the discussion of the Ukraine war. Still, the reality is that they have used almost all their sanctioning capabilities against Russia. This sanctions knife against Russia is becoming blunt, and the new sanctions do not add much to the previous ones.

Of course, part of the sanctions concerns third countries and certainly affects Russian oil sales. But experience has shown that, in the short and medium term, Russia can adapt to the new conditions.

What is perhaps more concerning is that the continuation of this trend will escalate the war, and the escalation may practically lead to the use of new weapons and armaments by both sides. In such a situation, there will be no opportunity for dialogue and negotiation.

Regarding the outlook of the Ukraine war, it must be said that with the events that have happened regarding the Ukraine war, a wound has been created in Russia-West relations. This wound or rift will not be repaired in any way, such that neither Russia will retreat from the territories it has occupied in Ukraine, nor will the West relent in its sanctions. The continuation of this situation is more likely to lead to an escalation of the conflict rather than the formation of a serious dialogue for peace or an agreement.