It has been a while that Turkey has been placed on a steep slope and while rumors about Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s physical problems have surfaced, even rumors of his death on social media have taken many by surprise. In addition to difficult economic conditions, other developments have affected Turkey’s domestic situation. During Joe Biden’s meeting with Erdogan on the sidelines of the World Climate Conference, although the issue of purchasing F-16s was raised and Biden spoke of his personal desire to resolve tensions between Turkey and the United States, more than economic issues or purchases needed by Turkey, he cleverly addressed the issue of human rights and the rule of law for peace and prosperity in Turkey under Erdogan.

Internal developments in Turkey have also caused uncertainty in the capital market and the Turkish lira against the US currency has fallen to 1.2 percent per day, close to the psychological threshold of 10 lira. The incident is unprecedented in the past five years, and the lira has depreciated by two-thirds against the dollar over the past five years. However, Erdogan claims that he will reduce inflation to below two digits, which is not possible in the current situation. Because, on Saturday, November 12, EU sanctions against Turkey were renewed due to continued insistence on oil and gas exploration projects in the Eastern Mediterranean. The lira is expected to depreciate again in the coming days.

Another point is that this year, the lira has lost 25% of its value; Erdogan has pushed hard to raise interest rates to boost growth despite nearly 20 percent inflation, and since September, the Central Bank has cut its policy rate by 300, bringing to 16 percent, arguing that inflationary pressures are temporary.

This has raised major concerns within Turkey and within the AK Party structure, and has greatly preoccupied the Central Bank policymakers and the mindset of Erdogan’s economic and financial advisers. Because it is quite obvious that if this trend continues, Turkey will increasingly lose its attractiveness to foreign investors.

The policy of the Central Bank of Turkey is to reduce interest rates to allow banks to use their credit reserves to boost production and reduce inflation. But if the Central Bank continues to lower rates and lower the lira value, and with reducing its value, increases import costs for producers, inflation is unlikely to remain below 25 percent next year.

Despite all this, it seems that the economic situation in Turkey in the period leading up to the end of the year will not be very good, and economists estimate the dollar exchange rate in the New Year to be around 14 lira per dollar. This means that Erdogan’s economic and development policies are in serious crisis in such a situation, and it can even be said that it will lead to an unexpected recession. This, in turn, has reduced Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s popularity and will lead to a decline in the upcoming presidential election, most likely to a failure based on the current situation.

It should be noted that success of the Justice and Development (AK) Party, led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was due to economic growth and improved living conditions of the people, which had made the party and its leadership victorious in all the electoral process over the years, but the protests and public reactions in all walks of life and rising unemployment in Turkey, even among the Justice and Development Party supporters, are seen as a factor in reducing Erdogan’s popularity and his failure in realizing his promises.

It is natural that defiance in many political arenas and the incomprehensible preferences for the people in Erdogan’s strategic policies have caused him to be attacked by the opposition parties and the continuous and rapid changes in the international arena have led to unwanted processes in fulfilling the necessary parameters in Turkish foreign policy, all of which is moving forward as a domino effect, in order to bring about fundamental changes in the socio-political structure of Turkey.