Morteza Maki – European Affairs Expert

Nearly three years after Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine, the political and field prospects of this war are shrouded in uncertainty. As noted, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is, in effect, a proxy war being waged between NATO and Russia. Ukraine has not been able to withstand the well-equipped Russian army without the political, military, and financial support of NATO member states. For this reason, the political developments of the Ukrainian war must be discussed and examined outside this country, and the views of the United States and European governments determine the prospects for the Ukrainian war.

After nearly three years of the Ukrainian war, it is now the views and positions of US President-elect Donald Trump that determine how the course of this war, its continuation, or the ceasefire will be realized. Russia’s attack on Ukraine, which began with the incitement of European and American governments to absorb Ukraine into the NATO alliance, led to a convergence between the United States and Europe on how to confront Russia.

Before Russia attacked Ukraine, European governments tried to influence Russia’s internal development and influence in the former Soviet republics by using soft power and strengthening Russia’s economic dependence on Europe. The United States, on the contrary, sought to pursue a policy of containing Russia on its borders by expanding the NATO umbrella and accepting Ukraine into the alliance.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine forced European governments into an inevitable situation of aligning with the United States and engaging in a proxy war with Russia in Ukraine. On the other hand, the Russian side also tried to weaken the extensive sanctions of the European Union and the United States by expanding political, military, and economic relations with various countries, from China, North Korea, India, and Arab states to African countries, and find new markets for its oil and gas exports.

Russian oil was imported to China and India at great discounts so that Russia could maintain its exports and cover the costs of the war in Ukraine. Regarding military and economic aspects, Russia’s relations with China have advanced more than those of other countries in neutralizing Western sanctions against Russia. For this reason, Europe and the United States have taken a political, economic, and even military line against China. The dispatch of 10,000 North Korean soldiers to Russia to fight in Ukraine would not have been possible without China’s green light, and this shows that we are witnessing an informal military and political alignment between China and Russia and widespread solidarity between European governments and the United States against Moscow and Beijing.

Even if the war in Ukraine ends today, Russia’s attack on Ukraine in February 2022 will have an impact on the world’s political, security, and even economic equations, and Trump’s rise to power in the United States will increase tensions between Western countries and Russia’s allies in the BRICS and Shanghai. Trump has said If the BRICS countries seek to challenge the US dollar as a global currency, US tariffs on their goods will increase by 100 percent, and this will put the BRICS countries, especially China and Russia, in a difficult position to confront the United States and Europe. BRICS members had previously said the group was not seeking to form a bloc against Western countries. Still, the United States and Trump’s positions show that this country and even the Europeans, as much as they can, will not allow new blocs to form outside the orbit of Western governments that would jeopardize the status and position of the United States and European governments in the long term. Given the enormous volume of commodity and financial exchanges with the United States, it seems unlikely that the BRICS member countries will remove the USD from their transactions in light of the threats from Washington.