Dr. Majid Mohammad Sharifi – Assistant Professor, Department of International Relations, Kharazmi University

In a statement, the German Federal Government Intelligence Service head, Bruno Kall, claimed that the Russian threat to Germany is closer than thought and is likely to be carried out in the coming years. He stated at the hearing of the Bundestag parliamentary control committee: “It seems that the Russian armed forces will try to prepare for an attack on NATO member states by the end of this decade at the latest. The Kremlin sees Germany as an enemy because Berlin is Ukraine’s second largest supporter in the war against Russia. Germany is now in a direct military confrontation with Russia. Vladimir Putin is not only looking for the obliteration of Ukraine but also the establishment of a new world order. Russia’s activities have expanded in an unprecedented way, and it is expected that Putin will put the red lines of the West to the test.

In addition, Thomas Aldenwang, head of the German Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, also warned against increasing Russian activities in Germany. He also claimed, “In recent years, the aggressive actions of the Russian intelligence services have increased. Russia’s espionage and sabotage operations show an increasing trend both quantitatively and qualitatively. Martina Rosenberg, head of Germany’s Federal Military Counterintelligence Service (BAMAD), also pointed out the existence of such threats from Moscow. He also emphasized in a warning tone: “The number of Russian espionage operations to attack Germany’s critical infrastructure has reached an alarming level. Russia’s actions are focused on the German Ministry of Defense. This concentration aims to monitor the transfer of German weapons to Ukraine, training or weapons projects, and finally, to transmit a sense of insecurity through sabotage actions.

The above statements prove that Germany and other European NATO member countries interpret the Russian threat more seriously and urgently. Such words cannot be considered only an exaggeration or an attempt to make Russia more secure. It seems that European countries are worried about the dangers of any possible military conflict with Russia in the near future, and they are trying to prepare for such a possibility by collaborating and carrying out joint military initiatives.

The prolongation of the war in Ukraine without a prospect of its end has gradually increased the security concerns of the European countries that are members of NATO. Before this, the perception of the urgency and scope of Russia’s threat had caused Finland and Sweden to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Also, due to Russia’s threat, the number of NATO member states that allocated 2% of their GDP to defense and security jumped from 8 to 23 countries. Germany, which previously avoided any participation in military plans or initiatives in Europe, has now become the second supplier of military equipment to Ukraine and assumes more military roles due to Russia’s threat. All these developments show the European countries’ acceptance of the urgency of Russia’s threat, especially Germany.

What is most important to pay attention to is that it seems the fear of Donald Trump’s possible victory in the US presidential elections has darkened the horizons of European countries. Due to the previous cooperation experience with Trump, these countries are worried about weakening standard security organizations and institutions such as NATO. The possibility of Trump’s appeasement with Putin and the end of US military support to Ukraine has caused European countries to look for alternative ways to deal with Russia. The comments of German officials and other European countries show that European leaders interpret Russia’s threat differently from America. Undoubtedly, having long borders with Russia and unpleasant historical experiences are the most important factors in forming this different perception. Germany and other European countries are preparing for the period of the post-American security order in Europe due to this different perception and concern about the uncertainty of the US military support for Ukraine and the possibility of weakening the trans-Atlantic security cooperation during the Trump era.

In the meantime, Olaf Schultz’s government seems to have considered a different role for Germany in the new European security order in a different approach from Angela Merkel’s government. With Britain’s exit from the European Union, France and Germany are seeking to play the role of leadership and guarding the security order of Europe. Germany intends to surpass France in this regard. It can be predicted that in the coming years, Germany’s role and orientation in European military initiatives, especially in dealing with Russian threats, will experience significant changes.