In an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, Rahman Qahramanpour commented on the media reports that the US, Europe, and Russia are concerned about the increase in China’s nuclear arsenal and its impact on international politics and nuclear deterrence; he said: Advanced intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear bombers and submarines have worried the US, Europe, and Russia. According to the American assessment, China will have about a thousand nuclear warheads in the next ten years, that is, in 2034, and this means that the power of this country’s nuclear arsenal will be equal to the nuclear power of Russia and the United States. Therefore, for the first time after World War II and in the history of international politics, we will witness the emergence of three nuclear superpowers.

He continued: The theories proposed so far about nuclear stability and nuclear deterrence are based on the presence of two equal nuclear superpowers, i.e., America and Russia, and game theories also predict that strategic nuclear stability is more possible with two actors. Therefore, the emergence of China as the third top nuclear power will pose serious challenges to nuclear strategic stability in the world and approaches to nuclear deterrence, nuclear proliferation, and nuclear competition in India, the Pacific, and South Asia.

This expert on international issues raised two points of view about the reasons for China’s desire and focus on its new nuclear strategy, and in other words, the reasons for changing China’s nuclear strategy: firstly, that China is becoming an economic superpower and because it is in general competition with the United States and changing the existing liberal orders, to become an equal power with the United States, it needs to have more nuclear weapons; in other words, it cannot be the main competitor of the United States in world politics without considering it, from this point of view, China’s attempt to expand the nuclear arsenal.

Qahramanpour added: The second point of view believes that the US threats against China and its efforts to contain it through its proximity to Australia, South Korea, India, and Japan are the main reasons for China’s attempt to change its strategy. In this view, the threat-oriented approach prevails; that is, China being threatened at the level of the international system and the region as well as in India and the Pacific is the main reason for China to tend towards the expansion of its nuclear arsenal, and this second approach in terms of international relations theories as an approach is interpreted systemically and neo-realistically.

He said about America’s reaction to China’s decision to expand its nuclear arsenal: In this regard, one point of view believes that America’s current arsenal and its current nuclear power can match China’s, and therefore, it does not need to expand its nuclear arsenal and can maintain its nuclear superiority by modernizing its nuclear weapons, bombers, increasing the accuracy of ICBMs, and deterring Chinese cyberattacks. Supporters of this view believe that strengthening the nuclear arsenal does not necessarily deter China from its current path. On the contrary, it is a waste of American economic resources. Another point of view is that America should expand its nuclear arsenal to counter China’s growing nuclear power and nuclear superiority over Russia. This view, which is based on the “nuclear superiority” strategy, claims that America will not be able to create nuclear balance and stability in a nuclear tripolar world like in the Cold War era and the past years, and the probability of a nuclear war occurring in nuclear tripolar conditions is higher. In this situation, America’s solution is to increase the power of its nuclear arsenals to the extent that it can achieve pre-emptive nuclear deterrence against China. That is, America’s expanded nuclear arsenal will allow this country to immediately organize a pre-emptive war against them if Beijing and Moscow decide to start a nuclear war.

He clarified: In the “nuclear deterrence” approach that has been used so far, it is said that a country must have the capability of a second nuclear strike, which means mutual absolute destruction. But in the “nuclear superiority” approach, America must strengthen its arsenal in terms of numbers and nuclear power so that China and Russia will basically remove the thought of any kind of practical attack on America. This is the continuation of the preemptive war theory that was proposed by the neocons in the Bush administration after September 11. However, at that time, this theory was about conventional weapons, and now it is about nuclear weapons.

Referring to the complex situation of Russia in the face of the new situation of China’s nuclear arsenal, he stated: On the one hand, Russia tends to make the most of the privilege of having nuclear weapons equal to the United States, and on the other hand, it is worried that China will become a new nuclear rival for America and Russia. At the same time, it hopes that the increase in China’s nuclear power will lead to a decrease in American influence in international politics, so in this case, Russia’s policy and view are ambiguous on the issue of expanding China’s nuclear arsenal; On the one hand, it welcomes the fact that China’s rise to power will lead to the weakening of American power, but on the other hand, it has a serious concern about falling behind in the competition with China and the United States. so it seems that it is trying to define a broad sphere of influence in Eurasia that should compensate for this weakness and backwardness.

Regarding the impact of this issue on Europe, Qahramanpour stated that the expansion of China’s arsenal is a matter of concern for Europe: Europe is seriously concerned about this issue. On the one hand, it worries about Russia’s conventional and unconventional military threats to Europe’s security architecture, especially in Eastern Europe, the Black Sea, and the Baltic. On the other hand, it is worried that the increase in China’s nuclear power will make Europe dependent on the United States and NATO regarding security and will be forced to move towards strengthening the American nuclear umbrella through Europe.

The international issues expert said that China’s increase in nuclear power has intensified internal debates in the European Union about how to use the nuclear deterrent power of France and the United Kingdom. Naturally, this situation favors the increased French influence in Europe and the decreased German influence in the European Union. On the other hand, it can strengthen Britain’s position in the European security system, which is to the detriment of France and Germany. Therefore, the expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal will intensify internal disputes in the European Union.