The war in Ukraine has become complicated for a variety of reasons, including escalation of a full-fledged media war. The war has entered its fourth month while it is not yet possible to give an accurate estimate of when it will end.
US insistence on continuing Ukraine war
There are several indications that the United States is seeking to “prolong the war” in Ukraine. The benefits of prolonging the war in Ukraine for the United States are far outweigh than the benefits of ending the conflict in that country! As one of the important signs is the provision of tens of billions of dollars in military and civilian aid to Ukraine and Eastern European countries. Such aids basically act to maintain the current course of the war in Ukraine in a “controlled” way.
The fact that the US administration has signed a 40 billion dollars aid package to Ukraine, of which 20 billion dollars will be provided as part of a military aid package to Ukraine by the month of Shahrivar (August/September), means that in practice, the US is not looking for an end to the war, even if Ukraine turns into a pile of ashes.
The United States has a well-defined and well-calculated strategy in Ukraine based on prolonging the war and “creating new security blind nodes” in the international system. In this regard, “Russia’s vigilance” in the face of the complex and macro US policies that seek to turn Ukraine into a quagmire for Moscow is a “vital necessity”.
US objectives of prolonging Ukraine war
- Weakening Russia: According to the latest US National Security Document, Russia is the second threat to the United States after China, which is to the detriment of the United States as it seeks to expand its international influence. For the White House, the erosion of the war in Ukraine and the “maintenance of the crisis” in Russia’s periphery (Central Asia, Eastern Europe, and even Northern Europe) are a prelude to Russia’s weakening in the international system. One of the main reasons for pushing Finland and Sweden towards NATO is to maintain the crisis in the periphery of Russia!
The prolonged war in Ukraine is a good excuse for expanding comprehensive economic sanctions against Russia, which the White House sees as a major factor in the country’s economic collapse and diplomatic isolation. For the US government, weakening Russia and Putin himself, even at the cost of “destroying Ukraine”, is a valuable and strategic achievement that should not be overlooked!
- B) Electoral exploitation: In a recent poll conducted by the Associated Press, Biden’s popularity has dropped to 39 percent. Biden is facing difficult conditions in order to improve his political popularity in public opinion and facilitate the victory over his Republican rivals.
The experience of contemporary American history has shown that the direct or indirect presence of the United States in foreign wars has always been seen as a unique opportunity for incumbent presidents to win re-election. This can be a point of reference for Joe Biden, regardless of any domestic or foreign policy performance; provided that the fire of the war is not extinguished until the weeks leading up to the 2024 elections!
- C) The boom in military economy: The boom in the US arms market is one of the “tangible results” of the Ukraine war for the US. Arms companies that play a key role in US foreign policy have made huge profits in recent months following the Russian invasion of Ukraine from arms sales to Eastern European countries and the world.
- D) Economic benefits in the field of energy and food: Russia’s oil and gas embargo can change the transfer of oil and gas to European countries towards the United States and thus accelerate the increase in foreign revenues of that country; under a situation where those countries are facing economic problems at home. This will also intensify the context of Europe’s dependence on the United States in the medium term.
Russia and Ukraine supply more than 30 percent of the world’s wheat and corn. The war has disrupted or reduced global exports of wheat and corn from the two countries, resulting in higher prices for those two “strategic commodities” that play an important role in the world’s food production chain.
Continuation of the war could send the monopoly of the wheat market from Russia and Ukraine to the United States. This year, the United States, being previously informed of the shortage of wheat in the world markets, has switched a large part of its agricultural lands to wheat cultivation, and has prepared an important plan to “monopolize” the export of this product!
- E) Intimidating China: Given that China is the largest and the main strategic rival of the United States in the international system, therefore, the US government uses continuation of the war in Ukraine as a tool to intimidate China. Especially, if Russia gets involved in this war, in the eyes of the United States, it will be a lesson for China to get rid of the idea of Taiwan annexation.
Any American adventure against the Russians in Ukraine will not be without consequences for the United States. Russia is an integral part of Europe’s political, economic, security and military geography, therefore, a change in Russia’s position and its weakening will have negative consequences for the Europe continent.
Given the US objectives in the Ukraine war, whatever the outcome of the game in that country, it will not be to the benefit of the Ukrainian people. Moreover, even if the war in Ukraine ends, the security conflict in this area will not end; the issue that the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution stated in a short and wise phrase: Today, Ukraine is a victim of the US crisis-making policy.
The Ukraine war has so far cost Ukraine more than 500 billion dollars; this is a cost that is primarily incurred by the country and the people of Ukraine in advancing American interests and expansionism. It does not matter to the United States what happens to Ukraine, it is important to maintain the current field and security process in Ukraine. Therefore, Ukraine should be kept out of the complex puzzle that the United States has prepared.