Speaking to the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, Javad Pasandideh said that the South Caucasus region is definitely on the verge of some changes, adding: It seems that those developments are due to the role-playing and performance of some regional and trans-regional players and not due to internal developments that occur in those countries.
Interventions of regional and trans-regional countries
Referring to the internal affairs of Armenia and the decision of Pashinyan (former prime minister of Armenia) to resign in late April, he said: Considering the political situation of Pashinyan, compared to his predecessors, Armenia and Russia did not act as coherently and coordinately as the Kremlin and Putin himself intended.
He continued: Armenia should be considered geopolitically under the siege and therefore needs to develop its relations with neighboring countries, including Russia, Iran and even the Republic of Azerbaijan and Turkey, because it does not have strong natural and economic resources that like the Republic of Azerbaijan wants to draw the West towards itself, not that it has a special military capability.
The analyst of the Caucasus affairs further remarked: In general, the countries in the post-Soviet era are not yet in a position to be completely independent in terms of political authority and independence, especially in relation to Russia.
The expert on Caucasus affairs saying that unlike Georgian officials or even the Republic of Azerbaijan and former Prime Minister of Armenia, Pashinyan is not an anti-Russian or pro-Western figure, added: The point is that Russia and Turkey have created equations and cooperation in the region, according to which the political destiny of those countries, especially Armenia and later the Republic of Azerbaijan, will be affected.
Pasandideh stressed: The issues that exist now and will continue in those countries are influenced by the policies that the neighbors of those two countries, Armenia and Azerbaijan, are developing.
Recalling that the Republic of Azerbaijan is the largest buyer of arms from the Zionist regime, the Caucasus analyst said: In fact, the regime is trying to increase its influence in the region and in the name of more cooperation, even under the pretext of an economic or perhaps military ally of Azerbaijan, participate in the Karabakh crisis. Those are the dangers that the region and we face from the outside.
He referred to the proximity of the Republic of Azerbaijan with Turkey and their interaction, especially during the Second Karabakh War, and added: Turkey was able to use this route and bypass Armenia and obtain a series of concessions that are directly related to the Republic of Azerbaijan.
He continued: After the defeat of the Armenian forces in the Karabakh war, Russia was able to bring its forces into the Republic of Azerbaijan, and according to the remnants of the Soviet era that we always see in the minds of politicians of the Russian Federation, especially since Putin, this country not only did not fulfill its usual commitment to defend Armenia and the Armenians, but by providing the necessary conditions was able to establish a military presence in Azerbaijan, which is considered a victory for it.
South Caucasus prone to crisis and tension
Regarding the future developments in the region, Pasandideh said: The problems and crises that exist in the post-Soviet countries, whether Ukraine in Eastern Europe or even Belarus or Moldova, as well as the South Caucasus region and the three countries of Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia, are frozen tensions that are tolerated as a wound, and from time to time it becomes open. If not managed properly, it is unlikely that the fire of ethnic and regional and possibly international conflicts will flare up again. Certainly, this region is prone to such crises and tensions.
Referring to Iran’s long history and very deep historical ties with the countries of the region, he added: Iran can play a constructive role in establishing and constructing bilateral or multilateral interaction with Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Russia and maintain peace and stability in this region.
According to Pasandideh, it should be borne in mind that a number of Ankara-backed forces that were part of the Salafi terrorists in Syria are now stationed in Karabakh in order to change the composition of the population, and this will not be unchallenged in the long run.
In conclusion, he referred to some efforts to create a Turkish corridor in the region and its impact on its demographic context, as well as the need to pay attention to the risks of this project.