There are important points regarding the recent Israeli army attack on Latakia and Tartus, which point to three important points in this regard:

First point; this is the first time since 2018 that the Israeli army has launched a missile and air strike on the Latakia and Tartus areas in the northwest of Syria, where S300 missile systems are based. It was the last time in 2018 that a Russian plane was shot down in the area due to the bombing of Latakia by Israeli fighters. According to a statement issued by the Russian Ministry of Defense at the time, four Israeli jet fighter attacking Syrian military targets in the Latakia region used a Russian L-20 reconnaissance aircraft as an air shield against Syrian missiles which led to the explosion of the plane and killing of all 14 military personnel on board.

Second point; as mentioned in the opening lines, Latakia, and especially Tartus, is Russia’s sphere of influence in Syria. That is why the Russian government has always been sensitive to the developments in that region. The port of Tartus, located in the Province of Tartus, had become a base for Russian ships in the Mediterranean Sea during the Soviet era. The Russian navy has leased a naval base in the eastern Mediterranean port city of Tartus until 2042, and if it loses that base, the Mediterranean Sea will become a lake controlled by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). On the other hand, the port of Tartus has been hosting the Syrian navy for many years, and thousands of its citizens have been living in coastal settlements on the outskirts of the Russian navy, so their protection is linked to Russia’s international standing. In addition to Tartus, Latakia, which was recently attacked by Israel, is of particular importance to Russia. Latakia Province hosts Khmeimim Air Base, one of Russia’s most important air bases in southeast of Latakia, which was built in 2015 as one of the strategic centers of Russian military operations against ISIS near Basel al-Assad International Airport.

Therefore, the port city of Tartus, as well as Latakia, which play a decisive role in Moscow’s strategic presence in Syria, are important, and the Russians have always, even during the years of crisis in Syria that began in 2011 and continues more or less, keep this important area away from all lines of conflict by any means possible, including the deployment of forces and the establishment of a military base.

Third point; the Israeli missile and air strikes on Latakia came at a time when rumors continue to circulate that Russia is planning to protect the Syrian government, army and military bases from Israeli attacks. In other words, Moscow is committed to seriously protect the Syrian government and army from land and sea against the air and missile attacks of the Israeli army from now on. Even before and in recent months, Moscow officials have repeatedly publicly condemned Israeli attacks on Syrian territory, calling it destructive and unacceptable, and have stated their firm stance in consultations with Israeli officials. For example, Alexander Lavrentyev, the Russian president’s special envoy for Syria, recently stated explicitly in response to Israeli attacks on various parts of Syria that: ‘Those attacks must be stopped. They are destructive, and we hope that in any case, the Israeli side will address our concerns in this regard, especially the concern that the situation on Syrian soil could escalate. Sooner or later our patience will run out and it may lead to retaliatory attacks, which can certainly lead to the worsening of the situation. No one wants that, and that is why, in our contacts with our Israeli counterparts, we emphasize precisely the unacceptability of the offensive against the territory of the independent Syrian state.’

Interestingly, just a few days after Lavrentyev’s remarks, the Russian army in March 2020, using Pantsir-S and Buk M2 air defense systems, thwarted some Israeli attacks on Syria and prevented the success of the missile attacks! This is exactly what cannot send a good message to Israel, which in any way seeks to destroy all of the Assad regime’s defense tools, even those of a Russian nature. Of course, important factors in the gradual change in Russia’s position on Syria and Moscow’s stubbornness towards Tel Aviv have been decisive, as is the clear outlook for the Syrian crisis, as well as the Biden government’s tense stance, including attacks on pro-resistance groups in the east of Deir ez-Zor and the weakening of Israel’s field and political position in the region are also among those factors; therefore, Israel, regardless of Russia’s warnings, which is accompanied by some changes in the field and political approaches, the bombing of Moscow’s positions in Syria could narrow the field for Israel in Syria in the coming months.

As discussed in this article, in the new round of Israeli airstrikes on the northwest of Syria, apparently Israel has not sufficed to bombing the positions of the Syrian army and the Resistance Front, but has crossed the Russian red lines, which it last violated in 2018 by shooting down a Russian plane. This Israeli action certainly cannot have a good prospect in terms of bilateral relations and coordination not only in Syria but also in the region. The Israeli army’s bombing of areas in Syria where Russia has a base and concentration of forces and has somehow defined them as part of its national security doctrines could damage Russia’s regional and international prestige if Moscow does not act seriously and react decisively. Because, in the regional public opinion, Russia is known in the region and internationally as a country that has a special sensitivity to the aggression and violation of foreign forces and rivals to its positions and interests.

Israel faces severe field and security threats in foreign policy and at home. In recent weeks, the occupied territories have also witnessed numerous security incidents against Israel’s sensitive and strategic centers. This regime also suffers from several structural problems at home. Putting all this together with the madness that the regime continues to show in its continued attacks on Syrian territories, even the centers where Russia is present, it cannot offer a good prospect for Tel Aviv in Syria. Even by attacking Russian military positions, the Zionists no longer have a chance to advance their plans in Syria.