Prospect of Peace Talks with the Taliban

2019/04/27 | Opinion, political

Strategic Council Online: The biggest challenge facing Afghan peace talks in Moscow and Doha at present is that the Taliban believe the Afghan government is a puppet state and has no legitimacy. Nozar Shafiei - Expert on Subcontinent Affairs

At present, peace talks on Afghanistan are being pursued on the two fronts of Moscow and Doha. Moscow talks are being followed by China, Russia, Pakistan, Central Asia, the Afghan government and Iran, and the Doha talks are being pursued by the United States. Of course, since the main players in both processes are the same, any of the trends that follow will be welcomed by the actors. That is not to say that if a peace process was pursued by the United States, the rest would be against it. In fact, although there may be rivalries between China and the United States, first-class players inside Afghanistan and regional actors are willing to resolve the Afghan dilemma through negotiations.
Of course, because of the prolongation of the war and the disputes and conflicts between the parties involved in the war, including the Taliban, the central government and some other forces that may be outside the government but clashing with the Taliban and having concerns about the state (Like Mr. Mohaqiq and General Dostum), we see pressures on these groups from outside and inside. So, these people are gradually reaching the conclusion that the option of war is costly and they should move towards peace.
In the Doha peace process, talks are held between the Afghan government and the Taliban, but in the peace process in Moscow, the debate is between different Afghan and Taliban groups. So this is the key difference between the two peace processes.
Therefore, in line with the Moscow process followed by Russia and China, the Taliban are not prepared to enter into negotiations with the Kabul government. In general, there are a number of serious issues in the Doha process that are managed by the US, as well as in the Moscow peace process; first, the US and the Taliban are negotiating bilaterally and there is no seat for the central government in the talks.
Therefore, the Kabul government has complained that the United States is holding negotiations without the central government and move ahead without informing the government. After this objection, it has been attempted to involve the Afghan government in the talks.
Therefore, in the Doha process, there are three forces: the Afghan government, the Taliban and party movements, and representatives of parties and groups, especially jihadist groups. Meanwhile, in the Moscow process only parties and groups active in the Afghan crisis are present and the Afghan government has no representation. Therefore, it is likely that the Moscow process will also try to admit representation from the government.
Currently, the biggest challenge for the Moscow and Doha peace talks is that the Taliban believe the Afghan government is a puppet state and not legitimate. Also, since the Afghan presidential election is ahead, they have accepted a person like Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai as one who may be in power only in the next few months or, as far as the Taliban are concerned, this person is now a candidate and not the head of state. Therefore, the Taliban say that this person does not have the prestige and legitimacy to negotiate.
So the question of how the government would handle the peace talks is still unclear. That is, whether the government will negotiate with the Taliban as an independent organ or tripartite negotiations (including the government, other party groups plus the Taliban).
In fact, the Taliban tactic is that they have agreed to enter negotiations as a group with other effective groups in Afghanistan; the government’s idea is that any negotiations without a government presence are illegitimate, and the government will prevent it from being implemented.
In the current situation, it seems that the Taliban are moving in the direction of accepting some government representatives. However, these representatives attend the talks in the name of the government but are mainly from among the elders of Afghanistan called Loya Jirga.
In the meantime, regarding the future of the two trends in Moscow and Doha, we can say that the Doha process is more active now, but the Taliban themselves are more likely to follow the Moscow process.
Of course, it should be noted that the agenda of the Moscow and Doha peace talks is almost the same, and now the most important issue is who holds the upper hand.
Ultimately, with the US-led program for Afghanistan, there are two Taliban-led strategies available for Donald Trump on Afghanistan and South Asia: One is that the group will join the peace process and enter the political process in Afghanistan as a political force. Otherwise, it may encounter military confrontation. It seems that Washington is currently pursuing both the negotiation process for peace and war to force the Taliban make peace.

0 Comments

Submit a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

LATEST CONTENT

Zionist Regime’s Post-War Map for Gaza

Strategic Council Online – Interview: An expert on Middle East issues said: After nearly 150 days have passed since the attacks of Israeli planes on Gaza and the unprecedented genocide in this city, regional and international efforts to end the Gaza crisis have intensified.

Reasons for Inaction & Inefficiency of Intl Organizations in Providing Aid to Gaza

Strategic Council Online: An expert on regional issues said: With the start of the Gaza war, many major powers and international organizations not only did not take honest action to support the defenseless Palestinian people, but instead, with their support for the actions of the Zionist regime, they caused their crimes to increase over the past five months.

France and the Two-State Solution in Occupied Territories

Strategic Council Online – Interview: An expert on regional issues said: The announcement of France’s agreement with the formation of two states in the Occupied Territories is a measure to raise the international image of France and reduce domestic pressure on the Macron government for inaction against the Israeli crimes in Gaza.

The Prospect of US Military Withdrawal from Iraq

Strategic Council Online – Opinion: Although most currents, politicians and even ordinary people in Iraq call for withdrawal of American military forces from their country, there are sometimes differences of opinion regarding the time of this withdrawal. On the one hand, Mohammad Shia al-Sudani, the Prime Minister of Iraq, is very serious in demanding the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq. Still, he wants to achieve this goal through “negotiation and political deal”. On the other hand, the Iraqi Resistance groups want the Americans to leave this country as soon as possible. The American side is also talking about a military withdrawal from Iraq in the next three years.

Russia’s Multifaceted Relations with Neighbors

Strategic Council Online – Interview: An international affairs expert said: After Russia attacked Ukraine two years ago, the country’s relations with some of its European neighbors were severely disturbed in such a way that a clear future cannot be imagined for it.

Solution to Get Out of FATF Blacklist and Get Rid of Its Heavy Costs?

Strategic Council Online – Opinion: The Financial Action Task Force, FATF, announced on Friday, February 23, that the name of the Islamic Republic of Iran remains on the “blacklist” of this international organization. A decision that was not unexpected for the authorities of our country. According to the Governor of the Central Bank of Iran, one day before the release of the FATF statement, due to the current sanctions, Iran is looking for its own FATF, as it uses other tools instead of SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications). On this basis, it seems that while the United Arab Emirates and Lebanon were removed from the “Grey List” of FATF in the previous reviews in June 2024, the Islamic Republic of Iran is not trying to be exempted from the blacklist. But what kind of organization is FATF, and why are some in Iran against joining it? And what is the way out of this situation?

Loading

Últimas publicaciones

Zionist Regime’s Post-War Map for Gaza

Strategic Council Online – Interview: An expert on Middle East issues said: After nearly 150 days have passed since the attacks of Israeli planes on Gaza and the unprecedented genocide in this city, regional and international efforts to end the Gaza crisis have intensified.

Reasons for Inaction & Inefficiency of Intl Organizations in Providing Aid to Gaza

Strategic Council Online: An expert on regional issues said: With the start of the Gaza war, many major powers and international organizations not only did not take honest action to support the defenseless Palestinian people, but instead, with their support for the actions of the Zionist regime, they caused their crimes to increase over the past five months.

France and the Two-State Solution in Occupied Territories

Strategic Council Online – Interview: An expert on regional issues said: The announcement of France’s agreement with the formation of two states in the Occupied Territories is a measure to raise the international image of France and reduce domestic pressure on the Macron government for inaction against the Israeli crimes in Gaza.

The Prospect of US Military Withdrawal from Iraq

Strategic Council Online – Opinion: Although most currents, politicians and even ordinary people in Iraq call for withdrawal of American military forces from their country, there are sometimes differences of opinion regarding the time of this withdrawal. On the one hand, Mohammad Shia al-Sudani, the Prime Minister of Iraq, is very serious in demanding the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq. Still, he wants to achieve this goal through “negotiation and political deal”. On the other hand, the Iraqi Resistance groups want the Americans to leave this country as soon as possible. The American side is also talking about a military withdrawal from Iraq in the next three years.

Russia’s Multifaceted Relations with Neighbors

Strategic Council Online – Interview: An international affairs expert said: After Russia attacked Ukraine two years ago, the country’s relations with some of its European neighbors were severely disturbed in such a way that a clear future cannot be imagined for it.

Solution to Get Out of FATF Blacklist and Get Rid of Its Heavy Costs?

Strategic Council Online – Opinion: The Financial Action Task Force, FATF, announced on Friday, February 23, that the name of the Islamic Republic of Iran remains on the “blacklist” of this international organization. A decision that was not unexpected for the authorities of our country. According to the Governor of the Central Bank of Iran, one day before the release of the FATF statement, due to the current sanctions, Iran is looking for its own FATF, as it uses other tools instead of SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications). On this basis, it seems that while the United Arab Emirates and Lebanon were removed from the “Grey List” of FATF in the previous reviews in June 2024, the Islamic Republic of Iran is not trying to be exempted from the blacklist. But what kind of organization is FATF, and why are some in Iran against joining it? And what is the way out of this situation?

Loading