Speaking in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, Dr. Morad Kavianirad referred to the presence of representatives and heads of state from around 200 countries at the UN Climate Change Conference in Sharm el-Sheikh and stated: Climate change is an event that has affected security, stability and development in different countries and it seems that in the future, its dimensions will be more reflected in the countries of the world and will bring more serious concerns.
He stated that climate change has caused the amount of rainfall in countries to change drastically, and said: Any planning and strategy that is considered for development, regardless of climate change, especially in countries located in Southwest Asia, will not achieve the necessary success.
Emphasizing that climate change is a global threat and requires cooperation and interaction of different countries, the university professor continued: An important part of the development that took place in developed countries has led to the production of greenhouse gases that have left the world in its current state. Underdeveloped countries, which are generally poor, are also affected by such conditions, while they do not have the necessary infrastructure to face such a fundamental and sustainable change. For this reason, we are witnessing disruption of security and stability of those countries; in fact, those countries sometimes suffer from very severe droughts and sometimes are involved in very heavy floods, in both cases a lot of costs are imposed on the people, government and the citizens.
Kavianirad added: The developing countries in the UN conferences and also the meeting that was held in Egypt, while shouting about the needs and the situation they are faced with, emphasized that they are paying the price for the development in the developed countries. At the Sharm el-Sheikh Conference, we were witness to a conflict of views. The poor countries wanted to receive compensation and the developed countries were also looking for a resolution that would not increase the cost for them.
He said: In Egypt, it was emphasized that the catastrophic situation of poor countries, which are facing with the most severe consequences of global warming, should be given more attention.
The analyst of environmental security issues, referring to the establishment of the “Loss and Damage Fund” at the Sharm el-Sheikh Conference, with an aim of supporting poor countries against climatic incidents such as typhoons and floods, noted: In the conditions of conflicting interests of countries, many controversial decisions in the case of the Fund, was postponed to the next year’s meeting in Dubai, so that in the meantime, the ad-hoc committee will make recommendations to those countries regarding identification and expansion of financial resources and countries that provide it.
Saying that in the Climate Change Conference in Sharm el-Sheikh, the request of developing countries to create a “Loss and Damage Fund” was the dominant theme, he added: In the conference, a step was not taken regarding the strengthening of the “Glasgow Climate Pact” and the limitation of greenhouse gases and gradual elimination of the use of fossil fuels, and from this point of view, the meeting of Sharm el-Sheikh is considered as a serious setback.
Kavianirad emphasized: Until the level of greenhouse gas production in the world does not decrease, there will be no breakthrough for the poor and developing countries as well as other countries. Experts in Egypt warned that the number of people affected by global warming will double by 2050, and three billion people will be exposed to water tensions. Meanwhile, in areas that are definitely affected by the consequences of global warming, deaths occur 15 times more than in areas that are less involved. Under such situation, such funds will not be effective.
The associate professor of political geography of Kharazmi University, saying that the United Nations described any change in the reduction of greenhouse gases and the possibility of improvement in the current situation as disappointing, continued: In the text of the final statement of the conference, instead of the goals of the Paris Climate Pact to limit global warming to far less than 2 degrees Celsius, it was emphasized to 1.5 degrees if possible, which also requires an immediate and sustainable reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.
He added: In that conference, it was emphasized that by 2030, this amount should be reduced by 43 percent compared to the levels of 2019, and by 2050, the amount of greenhouse gas emissions around the world should reach a neutral level. However, in that conference, there was no mention of increasing efforts to deal with greenhouse gas emissions.
According to Kavianirad; the aid provided by the “Loss and Damage” Fund is not financial, and it is also possible that developed countries can update part of the infrastructure of underdeveloped countries or provide them with technical assistance.
Referring to the US opposition to reaching an agreement in the climate conferences, he added: In the UN Conference, it was said that China, as the largest producer of greenhouse gases, is responsible for 28 percent of greenhouse gas emissions, but it has announced that climate change in the world is mainly the result of the pollution that the developed countries have imposed on the world, and today that we are developing and its reflection will somehow be effective in climate change, we cannot sacrifice our development to correct climate change on a global scale. For this reason, the Chinese were not very unhappy with the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Conference. Of course, in that meeting, it was emphasized that China should fulfill its responsibility towards the “Loss and Damage” Fund, which was also a controversial issue.
Referring to the European Union’s threat to withdraw from the meeting, the analyst of environmental security issues noted: Saudi Arabia was among the countries that had objections to the agreement on controlling greenhouse gases. Relying on the solution of carbon sequestration and its storage, that country is looking for another way to reduce greenhouse gases, while according to scientists, this is not the only solution to the climate crisis.
Saying that there is not much hope to correct the situation of climate change on a global scale at least for the next few decades, Kavianirad said: The world will move towards becoming more insecure due to the deepening of the climate change reflections, and the results of the Sharm el-Sheikh Conference were not promising. In fact, the psychological atmosphere governing over that conference was influenced by the Ukraine war and Russia’s relations with the West. Russia has threatened the world to cut off gas exports, and Western countries are using any means and tools, even coal, in order to provide the energy they need.