Leaders of the Iraqi Shiite Coordination Framework presented a plan the summary of which is based upon changing the election law, holding parliamentary sessions and national dialogues. Al-Kadhimi, has also presented a plan that is based on conducting national dialogues and forming a committee with the presence of all political parties to present a road map and hold a national dialogue.
Sadr’s movement still insists on its previous proposal, namely early elections, and stated that it will not fall short of this demand. Considering this situation and the plans presented and the positions of Sadr’s movement and recent events such as the sit-in of Sadr’s supporters in front of the Supreme Judicial Council of Iraq, it is important to pay attention to several points.
One of the propositions emphasized by the Coordination Framework is change of the election law. The main reason for this is several propositions:
A) The change of the election law to constituencies changed the conditions for the Shiite movements, because those constituencies were divided according to population and zoned in such a way that the Shiite movements were in minority compared to other movements.
B) In the recent elections, unlike the previous elections, people were voted for, and this resulted in the voting of a large group of independents who did not ally with any party or movement. Of course, this caused people from outside the political movements to gain votes, who have no political background and do not have any political concerns to get out of the crisis at the current stage.
C) The current election law with this situation and this method will cause problems in the next elections and will face Iraq with various challenges. Changing it will smoothen the political situation and avoid any tension in this regard.
Another proposition is that the “Coordination Framework” (Etar-ol-Tansigh) is the same discussion of national dialogues, which has also been raised in Al-Kadhimi’s plan. In the plan that he presented, Al-Kadhimi emphasized on the formation of a committee with the presence of all political parties to present a road map and hold a national dialogue, in addition to bringing together the movement of Coordination Framework and Sadr.
This shows that the Framework movement has put forward its conditions according to the viewpoint of other parties and is not looking for political monopoly. Of course, the proposed political committee, which consists of all parties, has a positive feature, and that is all parties will be present in this committee and will comment on the political future, and in a way, political pluralism will be maintained in this regard.
Against the current proposals, some movements such as Sadr Movement still insist on early elections. The reasons why Sadr still insists on early elections can be interpreted as follows:
A) Due to the resignation of the Sadr Movement from the parliament and its acceptance by the House of Representatives, this movement now finds itself outside the political arena and is outside the circle of political movements to influence the political processes of Iraq, such as the election of ministers and the prime minister.
B) By holding early elections, Sadr seeks to provide conditions for the activities of the current government on the one hand and to expand the current conditions on the other hand, because in the Al-Kadhimi government, there are a large number of middle managers from the Sadr Movement and holding early elections will also be time consuming. As a result, one of the outputs of the Sadr Movement for early elections is the activity of the current government.
C) The Sadr Movement is looking for fragility among the votes of the Coordination Framework Movement, because this movement believes that in case of re-election, the Coordination Framework will get less votes than the previous elections, and this will be a factor in its fragility; because in case of fragility in the votes, other movements will not make a coalition with the Coordination Framework.
D) Muqtada Sadr hopes to get more votes than other movements, and with this measure and in alliance with other movements, he will succeed in forming bigger fraction.
Of course, it should also be noted that early elections for Iraq will be the worst possible scenario and many parties are against early elections, because on the one hand it will lead to political fragmentation and on the other hand it will reduce participation votes compared to the previous round. The situation that Sadr has adopted now in opposition to the Supreme Judicial Council and the Federal Court originates from those factors, and the sit-in of his supporters in front of the Supreme Judicial Council is to advance their own affairs, one of which is the issue of early elections.
Final assessment
With regard to Sadr’s measure in occupying the parliament and bringing the Iraqi political process to a dead end, political parties and individuals have presented important plans to get out of the dead end. The output of the majority of plans is based on national dialogues, and this shows that until political consensus is reached between the parties, there will be no way out of the political deadlock.
Of course, in addition to such issues, some legal changes in the election law have positive effects in leaving the current situation and preventing the repetition of such a scenario in the future. However, what is still being emphasized and the only way out of Iraq’s current deadlock is national unity and consensus among political parties which, if realized, a clear horizon for Iraq’s political future can be imagined.