Having stated that following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a new round of very extensive, broad and various unilateral as well as multilateral sanctions were imposed upon Russia, mostly under the management and pivotal role of the U.S., Hormoz Jafari, in an interview with the site of Strategic Council on Foreign Relations noted that:” only with the recent fortnight, more than 50 bills have been put forward to different committees of the U.S. Congress, Senate and House of Representatives aimed at punishment and imposing sanction upon Russia in various fields”.

He added:” at multilateral and international levels, and having exploited its diplomatic clout, the U.S. made a lot of efforts to proceed with the sanctions; one of the most important sanctions in this field relates to the Russian Central Bank whose assets were frozen. Any cooperation with the Central Bank, Ministry of Finance and Foreign Currency Reserves Fund of the Russian Federation have been blocked. Major economic moguls especially in oil and gas fields such as British Petroleum, Shell, Axon Mobile have left Russian market despite bearing heavy costs, IT companies like Google, Apple and Microsoft have also left Russia”.

The analyst of international affairs mentioned the sanctions and other measures taken by Europe against Russia in various fields and said:” Although during the history of international relations, imposition of such an extensive and broad sanctions upon one single country has been unprecedented, but it seems that despite all such measures, the Russian strategy on Ukraine will not change and the war will not be finished”.

Jafari explained:” the effects of the broad sanctions will be surfaced mostly in mid- and long-term. It’s true that due to the devaluation of Rubble, the Russian national currency, problems have been created and inflation rate has increased to nearly 10% and the national currency has lost almost 30% of its value, but in view of their hard currency reserves of more than $ 630 billion and their foreign debt of about 18% of their GNP, and also their oil and gas export which has not been affected strategically so far, they can leave behind their economic challenges in short term”.

Gradual Weakness of Russian Economy

Having stated that the economic pressures and the sanctions will definitely leave very extensive effects on Russia and the international system in long term, he added:” the Russian economy will gradually be weakened, oil and gas exports will provide 25% and 13% of Russian budget respectively. Having regarded the plans of some countries and also the EU to stop importing gas from Russia, and to become independent from the energy sector of the country, Moscow will face serious consequences”.

Having elaborated the consequences of broad sanctions against Russia for the international system, the expert of international issues noted:” for sure, Moscow will be driven towards Beijing, the new emerging super power, more than ever in the past. The situation will ultimately be coupled with the weakening role of Russians and strengthening role of Chinese at international system level, and bipolar structure which was being formed, will be emerged more seriously”.

Possibility of Rising Cooperation among Countries Subjected to Sanction    

In the meantime, Jafari reminded:” the extensive sanctions against Moscow will pave the ground for further cooperation of countries subjected to sanctions with Russia, and ultimately will weaken the US dollar dominance over international political economy field to some extent. However, the effect may not be strategic, but it will certainly be effective”.

The expert of Technology Studies Institute affiliated to the Presidency stated that geopolitically, the international sanctions and declining economic, political, military interactions between the West, particularly between the U.S. and the EU with Russians would mean widening gap between them and ultimately the outline of a new security pattern at international level. He said:” the new pattern will be coupled with the strengthening of industries and companies active in military, aerospace and weaponry fields; as Germany has already announced that it would allocate as much as 100 billion euro to strengthen and modernize its defensive industries”.

Weakening International Cooperation

He added:” at such a situation, the gap between the East and the West will be further widened and international cooperation will be weakened”.

Jafari continued:” sanctions on energy field will bring about serious consequences for geopolitics of production and consumption of energy in the coming decades. If Europe is about to stop importing energy from Russia, it should either have alternatives or should use renewable energies. It will mean a change in geopolitics of production and consumption of energy, particularly fossil energies in global supply of energy market”.

The expert of international issues referred to the role of Russia and Ukraine in providing foodstuffs and in supplying one third of potassium fertilizer of the world by Russia and the effect of sanctions on supplying foodstuffs of countries as well as their rising prices and said:” in such a situation, a country like Egypt in the Middle East will certainly face serious problem, because it imports the lion share of its consuming wheat from these two countries”.

Global Economic Growth Rate Will Slow     

He pointed out to the developments in the field of tourism despite imposition of sanctions and continued:” Russian tourists are very much important to some European countries. As Russians brought the Turks into their knees when boycotted them on tourism. Therefore, from this angle, the international economy will be affected too. In general, the economic growth rate at international level which was going to revive after Covid-19, will be impressed and will be slowed by the consequences of war in Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions”.

Having stated that one of the desired or undesired consequences of the war in Ukraine, was further coordination and integration of the West in a way that probably the Russians did not predict, jafari added:” Many analysts believed that if the U.S. wanted to confront with China, the solution was to draw Russia towards itself. But with implying such an extensive level of sanctions, the Wes will practically bring Russia closer to China. From this point of view, developments at strategic level have proved to be detrimental to the U.S. and the West”.